Topic: Election 2020

[hans]

I sort of wonder if TX might go blue this year. Seems like quite a bit of stuff going on down there at the moment.

This is going to be a crazy one tomorrow I think. Maybe I just never hear about it before, but this seems like the first election I know of that has the possibility of civil unrest. Businesses boarding up and my wife said the White House is putting up a fence, that's crazy.

[Jake]

I think that it will be a landslide, I just don't know which way it will go.

Texas is interesting, that is for sure. There are many transplants in that state, especially near Dallas/Fort Worth area as well as Austin - I'm sure that has an impact. Over the weekend I read that there are more votes cast in Texas in early voting this year, than all the votes counted in 2016. that is insane! and good too.

[charlie]

A Trump landslide would be almost impossible... The most bullish forecasts for him have Trump winning the popular vote as only a 3% chance. I guess with an electoral college advantage he might get a decent lead in electoral votes but it will be virtually impossible for him to get up above 330. Biden's median projected electoral vote count is more than that.

[Jake]

A Trump landslide would be almost impossible... The most bullish forecasts for him have Trump winning the popular vote as only a 3% chance. I guess with an electoral college advantage he might get a decent lead in electoral votes but it will be virtually impossible for him to get up above 330. Biden's median projected electoral vote count is more than that.

do you still trust these forecasts? I think that 2016 showed how majority of them were wildly inaccurate. https://www.270towin.com/2016-election-forecast-predictions/

[charlie]

A Trump landslide would be almost impossible... The most bullish forecasts for him have Trump winning the popular vote as only a 3% chance. I guess with an electoral college advantage he might get a decent lead in electoral votes but it will be virtually impossible for him to get up above 330. Biden's median projected electoral vote count is more than that.

do you still trust these forecasts? I think that 2016 showed how majority of them were wildly inaccurate. https://www.270towin.com/2016-election-forecast-predictions/

Yeah absolutely I still trust them. You shouldn't take them as specific predictions (like the individual maps on that page you link to) but instead guides on what outcomes are likely and what are less likely. In 2016 my preferred site 538 actually showed what actually ended up happening as a real possibility (it wasn't their most likely outcome, though). Other sites (HuffPost and PEC) were really bad and shouldn't be trusted but that was known before the election too I think.

Hmm... now I'm curious what we were saying before the election on here last time.

[charlie]

Ok here were two posts just before the 2016 election on what was expected:

Here's where the various models and markets have the race:

Electoral College
PEC: >99% Dem. (308 Clinton EV)
HuffPost: 98% Dem. (323 Clinton EV)
PredictWise: 89% Dem. (323 Clinton EV)
DailyKos: 88% Dem. (323 Clinton EV)
NYT Upshot: 84% Dem. (322 Clinton EV)
BettingOdds: 82% Dem. (323 Clinton EV)
538 Polls-only: 69% Dem. (322 Clinton EV)
538 Polls-plus: 70% Dem. (322 Clinton EV)

If you look at individual swing states/districts, here are Clinton's probabilities according to those models:

Swing States

State

|

PrincetonEC

|

HuffPost

|

PredictWise

|

DailyKos

|

NYT Upshot

|

BettingOdds

|

538-Only

|

538-Plus

New Hampshire

|

79%

|

91%

|

88%

|

96%

|

76%

|

75%

|

69%

|

69%

Nevada

|

74%

|

83%

|

95%

|

56%

|

70%

|

83%

|

57%

|

59%

Florida

|

74%

|

89%

|

95%

|

56%

|

70%

|

67%

|

54%

|

53%

North Carolina

|

43%

|

88%

|

60%

|

59%

|

66%

|

55%

|

54%

|

53%

Ohio

|

37%

|

37%

|

31%

|

15%

|

45%

|

33%

|

36%

|

37%

Maine (CD 2)

|

71%

|

50%

|

47%

|

N/A

|

38%

|

N/A

|

49%

|

51%

Iowa

|

26%

|

14%

|

16%

|

3%

|

38%

|

17%

|

30%

|

31%

Nebraska (CD 2)

|

8%

|

50%

|

18%

|

N/A

|

22%

|

N/A

|

38%

|

37%

------------------------------------------------------------------------

For the senate, their estimates for a Democratic majority are:

Senate
PEC: 79% Dem. (50 Dem seats)
HuffPost: 91% Dem. (51 Dem seats)
PredictWise: 67% Dem. (50 Dem seats)
DailyKos: 66% Dem. (51 Dem seats)
NYT Upshot: 55% Dem. (50 Dem seats)
BettingOdds: 59% Dem. (50 Dem seats)
538 Polls-only: 49% Dem. (50 Dem seats)
538 Polls-plus: 49% Dem. (49 Dem seats)

Competitive Senate Seats

State	|	PrincetonEC	|	HuffPost	|	PredictWise	|	DailyKos	|	NYT Upshot	|	BettingOdds	|	538-Only	|	538-Plus
Wisconsin	|	67%	|	98%	|	86%	|	74%	|	72%	|	82%	|	76%	|	81%
Pennsylvania	|	80%	|	97%	|	81%	|	83%	|	64%	|	78%	|	63%	|	61%
Nevada	|	80%	|	63%	|	74%	|	67%	|	61%	|	73%	|	53%	|	59%
New Hampshire	|	44%	|	79%	|	54%	|	52%	|	52%	|	58%	|	48%	|	52%
Indiana	|	50%	|	88%	|	30%	|	61%	|	42%	|	67%	|	36%	|	31%
Missouri	|	38%	|	41%	|	35%	|	39%	|	39%	|	62%	|	43%	|	42%
North Carolina	|	44%	|	12%	|	32%	|	35%	|	38%	|	64%	|	30%	|	26%

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Looks like Clinton is a favorite, although not as much as Obama was four years ago. Also looks like the Senate could go either way.

And Rob, I'd now put Trump's chance at becoming the President at around 25-30%. Crazy.

I think I'm currently at 20-25%, by the way. Way too high for my tastes.

[micah]

I mean, if you're a Republican and also a reasonable person then yeah of course you're going to be apathetic about it because you're not going to be excited about voting for Trump and you're not going to be excited about voting for Biden.

And after years of excellence the Patriots are... not excellent, so football won't be super exciting.

And then every individual has different stuff going on in their lives that could affect this type of feeling.. Like what if you're in a new relationship that you're excited about for the first time in a decade... I dunno.. maybe that type of stuff could also affect how much energy one devotes to other things? Just a guess.

...why am I still paying for a therapist when I have you? 

[Rob]

Ok here were two posts just before the 2016 election on what was expected:

Here's where the various models and markets have the race:

Electoral College
PEC: >99% Dem. (308 Clinton EV)
HuffPost: 98% Dem. (323 Clinton EV)
PredictWise: 89% Dem. (323 Clinton EV)
DailyKos: 88% Dem. (323 Clinton EV)
NYT Upshot: 84% Dem. (322 Clinton EV)
BettingOdds: 82% Dem. (323 Clinton EV)
538 Polls-only: 69% Dem. (322 Clinton EV)
538 Polls-plus: 70% Dem. (322 Clinton EV)

If you look at individual swing states/districts, here are Clinton's probabilities according to those models:

Swing States

State

|

PrincetonEC

|

HuffPost

|

PredictWise

|

DailyKos

|

NYT Upshot

|

BettingOdds

|

538-Only

|

538-Plus

New Hampshire

|

79%

|

91%

|

88%

|

96%

|

76%

|

75%

|

69%

|

69%

Nevada

|

74%

|

83%

|

95%

|

56%

|

70%

|

83%

|

57%

|

59%

Florida

|

74%

|

89%

|

95%

|

56%

|

70%

|

67%

|

54%

|

53%

North Carolina

|

43%

|

88%

|

60%

|

59%

|

66%

|

55%

|

54%

|

53%

Ohio

|

37%

|

37%

|

31%

|

15%

|

45%

|

33%

|

36%

|

37%

Maine (CD 2)

|

71%

|

50%

|

47%

|

N/A

|

38%

|

N/A

|

49%

|

51%

Iowa

|

26%

|

14%

|

16%

|

3%

|

38%

|

17%

|

30%

|

31%

Nebraska (CD 2)

|

8%

|

50%

|

18%

|

N/A

|

22%

|

N/A

|

38%

|

37%

------------------------------------------------------------------------

For the senate, their estimates for a Democratic majority are:

Senate
PEC: 79% Dem. (50 Dem seats)
HuffPost: 91% Dem. (51 Dem seats)
PredictWise: 67% Dem. (50 Dem seats)
DailyKos: 66% Dem. (51 Dem seats)
NYT Upshot: 55% Dem. (50 Dem seats)
BettingOdds: 59% Dem. (50 Dem seats)
538 Polls-only: 49% Dem. (50 Dem seats)
538 Polls-plus: 49% Dem. (49 Dem seats)

Competitive Senate Seats

State	|	PrincetonEC	|	HuffPost	|	PredictWise	|	DailyKos	|	NYT Upshot	|	BettingOdds	|	538-Only	|	538-Plus
Wisconsin	|	67%	|	98%	|	86%	|	74%	|	72%	|	82%	|	76%	|	81%
Pennsylvania	|	80%	|	97%	|	81%	|	83%	|	64%	|	78%	|	63%	|	61%
Nevada	|	80%	|	63%	|	74%	|	67%	|	61%	|	73%	|	53%	|	59%
New Hampshire	|	44%	|	79%	|	54%	|	52%	|	52%	|	58%	|	48%	|	52%
Indiana	|	50%	|	88%	|	30%	|	61%	|	42%	|	67%	|	36%	|	31%
Missouri	|	38%	|	41%	|	35%	|	39%	|	39%	|	62%	|	43%	|	42%
North Carolina	|	44%	|	12%	|	32%	|	35%	|	38%	|	64%	|	30%	|	26%

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Looks like Clinton is a favorite, although not as much as Obama was four years ago. Also looks like the Senate could go either way.

And Rob, I'd now put Trump's chance at becoming the President at around 25-30%. Crazy.

I think I'm currently at 20-25%, by the way. Way too high for my tastes.

Wow, that thread aged badly...

[charlie]

Lol these are the posts that haunt me still...

But don't worry, there's a better chance of RobR coming back and gracing us with his presence than Donald Trump winning the presidency.

I really doubt Trump gets the Republican nomination, there are lots of reasons to think he won't even though he appears to be a front runner now. And if somehow he does, there's really no way he actually wins the Presidency. He is really popular with a smaller group of people and really unpopular with a much larger group.

[Mike]

Oh, back when we were naive and believed in the reasonableness of people.  Those halcyon days where mocking a handicap reporter would be enough of a disqualifier and the GOP senators weren't complete bootlickers.

/sigh

[Jake]

Personally, I think that with either Bernie or Trump as the president, the country would spin out of control. The ideological divisions are two deep and both of them come from the extremes of their party and as such would never garnish ANY support or respect from the other side and these divisions could lead us into a dark future.

well, damn

[Jake]

looking back on that thread, I see how my views on certain key topics evolved in the past 4 years - and I have to do some retrospection as to why.

[hans]

Personally, I think that with either Bernie or Trump as the president, the country would spin out of control. The ideological divisions are two deep and both of them come from the extremes of their party and as such would never garnish ANY support or respect from the other side and these divisions could lead us into a dark future.

well, damn

Nailed that one.

[hans]

Whatcha got for the next four years?

[Mike]

Trump reverses the direction of spin, it continues to be a crazy and chaotic time but in the end he's undone everything and we are back to where we were in 2016?