Topic: Election 2020

[Jake]

Voted - it was virtually empty, there were 3 other people including my wife.

[Mike]

And with the first county in New Hampspire going to Trump (16-10) he has declared victory over the entire election




/s (I hope)

[hans]

Seems right.

[charlie]

Well, shit... looks like Trump is going to win Florida. Hopefully that isn't critical. :/

[Mike]

I'm seeing FL based tied at 80% reporting.  So, should plan on lots of fight.

[charlie]

I'm looking at the NY Times needle which has Trump at >95% to win Florida, presumably because we're still waiting on a lot of panhandle votes and they're essentially tied before those come out.

Also looks not great for Biden in Georgia, although that's still up in the air.

Looks like it will come down to Arizona or Pennsylvania.

[hans]

Landslide is starting to look out of the question so this is probably going to get interesting later tonight and in the next few days.

[charlie]

One very possible scenario shaping up... Biden wins Arizona, plus Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota. That gives him 269 electoral votes.  !!!

Biden could still win Pennsylvania but if not would have to win Nebraska 2nd district (or Maine's 2nd district) to get to 270 and squeak out a victory.

[Jake]

It looks like we'll be keeping America great for a few more years...and look, no violence in the streets

[charlie]

It looks like we'll be keeping America great for a few more years...and look, no violence in the streets

Umm... what results are you watching? It's looking decently good for Biden at the moment.


Fox has called Arizona and while other places haven't it's still very likely to go Biden.
Fox and AP have called Nebraska CD02.
Maine and Nevada are not called yet but are likely Biden as well.
North Carolina isn't called yet either but let's assume Trump wins it.

That means that out of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Georgia, Biden only needs to win any two.
In Michigan and Wisconsin Biden had a huge polling lead. Trump is leading the counted vote but they do early mailed in ballots last which are heavily Democratic. We knew this before tonight. So Biden is still a favorite in both of those states.

Also, Georgia has tons of votes in the heavily Democratic Atlanta area left, and the NYTimes estimate calls it a tossup (64% likely Biden wins). So even if somehow Michigan or Wisconsin go Trump Biden could easily make it up in Georgia.

The election is still not decided, but Trump needs to beat his polls in two states by a lot more than he did in Florida to pull it out. That's not going to be easy. I'd say Trump is in a slightly better position than he was to start the day but still an underdog.

[charlie]

Here's the current state as of midnight PT. Dark Blue/Dark Red means the state has been called. Light blue means it's likely Biden based on pre-election polls being ~8 points in his favor (or the calls from Fox News).  Gold means it could go either way but both gold states lean at least slightly towards Biden.




I guess I'll sleep now and you guys might know more about Michigan and Wisconsin and Arizona and Nevada in the morning before I get up. We'll see what happens.

[Jake]

whatever happens, the margins in some of these states are so small - I wonder if we've seen anything like it before. Quite spectacular.

[charlie]

whatever happens, the margins in some of these states are so small - I wonder if we've seen anything like it before. Quite spectacular.

Most likely this will end up less close than the last election.

[hans]

Wow, it's looking like Biden might actually pull this one out. And I don't think anyone doesn't think Trump is going to challenge all of the swing states. This is going to be months before it's over I'm guessing.

I think another thing to keep in mind is that whichever side actually wins this, nearly 50% of the country went the other way.

[ober]

I'm waaaay more nervous than I expected to be at this point.  It does seem to be favoring Biden at the moment.  I'm still worried.