Poll

Vote for your preferred candidate(s) for U.S. President

Donald Trump (R)
0 (0%)
Joe Biden (D)
3 (60%)
Jo Jorgensen (L)
2 (40%)
Howie Hawkins (G)
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 5

Voting closed: November 03, 2020, 02:48:43 PM

Author Topic: Election 2020  (Read 53760 times)

Jake

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Re: Election 2020
« Reply #315 on: November 04, 2020, 11:55:29 AM »
I think it all comes down to Nevada at this point. Assuming Biden holds on the MI and WI, and Trump to PA, GA, and NC - NV is only 8K votes apart and only 67% reporting.
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charlie

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Re: Election 2020
« Reply #316 on: November 04, 2020, 12:06:31 PM »
I think it all comes down to Nevada at this point. Assuming Biden holds on the MI and WI, and Trump to PA, GA, and NC - NV is only 8K votes apart and only 67% reporting.

I think Biden is a slight favorite in GA and PA so it doesn't necessarily come down to NV. But still, if you look at the NV votes left they are more likely to be Democratic so it's going to be tough for Trump.

Jake

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Re: Election 2020
« Reply #317 on: November 04, 2020, 12:11:03 PM »
I think it all comes down to Nevada at this point. Assuming Biden holds on the MI and WI, and Trump to PA, GA, and NC - NV is only 8K votes apart and only 67% reporting.

I think Biden is a slight favorite in GA and PA so it doesn't necessarily come down to NV. But still, if you look at the NV votes left they are more likely to be Democratic so it's going to be tough for Trump.


maybe in GA - but do you think he has a chance in PA being almost 500K behind?
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charlie

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Re: Election 2020
« Reply #318 on: November 04, 2020, 12:19:43 PM »
Absolutely... the way they set up the counting of the ballots in Pennsylvania was to do the mail-in or early ballots separately and last. Those are heavily democratic. Like 75-25. Quick math: They've counted 80% of the vote and it's 5.5 million votes so far. That leaves 1.4 million votes remaining. Split that 75-25 and it's 1 million for Biden and 350k for Trump. That's 650k advantage for Biden which puts him in the lead.

That's very rough and I don't know that the rest of the votes will be 75-25 but that's in the range of what we can expect. If it's closer to 67-33 then the final result will be really close.

Jake

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Re: Election 2020
« Reply #319 on: November 04, 2020, 12:25:38 PM »
a surprising positive outcome in IL is that a graduated income tax amendment was rejected by the voters - Pritzker, our governor, put up a bunch of his own money to flood the state with ads for the amendment - they were horribly deceiving. I was certain that in our state this will pass, and I am surprised that it lost, and lost quite drastically.

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hans

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Re: Election 2020
« Reply #320 on: November 05, 2020, 12:16:36 AM »
...and look, no violence in the streets :o

Cough, Arizona. WTF?
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jkim

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Re: Election 2020
« Reply #321 on: November 05, 2020, 07:24:42 AM »
I am absolutely floored by the AZ vote. I really want to know what happened there in the voter demographic and thinking over the last 4 years.

PA is now at only <170k difference. Vote by mail is really working down that red mirage.

Jake

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Re: Election 2020
« Reply #322 on: November 05, 2020, 10:29:01 AM »
This is pretty excruciating - imagine how the candidates must feel! holy cow!
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Jake

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Re: Election 2020
« Reply #323 on: November 05, 2020, 10:30:07 AM »
I'm telling you guys, I think it still comes down to Nevada

scratch that, I just noticed how much ground Biden gained in GA - wow
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hans

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Re: Election 2020
« Reply #324 on: November 05, 2020, 10:51:43 AM »
I'm not sure he'll close the GA gap. It'll be really close, but given the remaining ballots last night I think I figured he'd need 65% of them to get ahead. Making a good run though. AZ is going to be interesting as well. Some of the pundits think there's a larger % of them in there for Trump which would put PA and GA back into the important column. Speaking of GA, can you imagine the next 2mo of their TV ads for the Senate candidates? Especially if they end up with two run offs?


And what the hell is up with Portland? They just riot because now?
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Jake

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Re: Election 2020
« Reply #325 on: November 05, 2020, 10:57:39 AM »
And what the hell is up with Portland? They just riot because now?

because they are all high on legal heroin. ;)
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charlie

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Re: Election 2020
« Reply #326 on: November 05, 2020, 02:05:07 PM »
This is pretty excruciating - imagine how the candidates must feel! holy cow!

I've felt good about a Biden victory since late election night but yeah it is painful to have to wait this long for states to be called.


I think there are a lot of election related reforms that should be enacted because there is no reason for us to still be counting more than 24 hours after polls close. I'd like to see:

* Require all mail ballots to either be postmarked 1 week prior to the election or received by election day (except absentee ballots from people out of state or out of country).
* Drastically increase the number of ballot drop-off locations available to voters so that people who don't send in mail ballots a week early can still get them in easily.
* Increase resources for any precincts where voters must stand in line for more than 15 minutes to vote on election day. This could include larger polling places, more poll works, or adding early voting.
* Allow early processing (if not counting) of ballots delivered before election day. This is stupidly prohibited in places like Pennsylvania which is why we're still waiting for them to count just the regular votes that were sent in on time.

In a pandemic or similar situation I'm fine with easing those restrictions but the goal should be to make it as easy as possible for people to vote and as easy as possible for the vote counts to be completed in a timely fashion.

Mike

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Re: Election 2020
« Reply #327 on: November 05, 2020, 03:05:16 PM »
One thing I heard that I thought was interesting is that India has a requirement that every citizen has a polling place within so many miles.  This has caused election officials to spend days traveling to a remote location just for a small number of people.  That is the type of thinking I'd like us to have as a country, one where it is the duty of the government to ensure every person eligible to vote can do so without hardship.  I honestly like the direction CA has gone with mailing ballots out, having lots of drop locations, etc.  I think that even if I was one who worked in a job where I couldn't get out on election day that I have plenty of opportunities to use another method of voting.  CA also allowed election officials to validate the ballots and start tabulating them ahead of election day, they just weren't allowed to see the results until after the polls closed.

Jake

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Re: Election 2020
« Reply #328 on: November 05, 2020, 07:35:30 PM »
Down to 3K vote difference in GA!!! It is hard to believe
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charlie

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Re: Election 2020
« Reply #329 on: November 05, 2020, 08:00:22 PM »
Down to 3K vote difference in GA!!! It is hard to believe

Sorry to get on you but what is so hard to believe? That Biden will pull out Georgia? I posted here 40 hours ago that it was still a tossup and Biden would narrow the gap and possibly win. That's what's happening. Or is it just that a Democrat could win in Georgia? Which is not that surprising as they've been getting closer and closer there.

I guess my point is that if you're really surprised by any of this and don't want to be, maybe find some better sources? I mean I know not everyone is a junky about this kind of stuff so I shouldn't be so judgy.. and honestly I'm totally in favor of your right to not put in the time or energy to be super informed, but if you do find yourself constantly surprised by these outcomes there are smart people you can pay attention to that really narrow down the possibilities.