With what I'm reading I'm feeling like being proactive and canceling or postponing events is the right way to go. Obviously that's a hardship for some but I think in the long run it will save lives.
Saw some info today about how people tend to be more contagious early in the cycle (like maybe even before symptoms) and less contagious at the end (like maybe quarantine doesn't need to last as long).
Also, I think the idea is that we should be making decisions now based on what we expect to be true in a couple weeks, because all the information is a week or two behind. We still don't have nearly enough testing capability even though we've had months to prepare and weeks since it was clear it was needed. Everywhere in the U.S. that has reported cases has seen numbers that get bigger and bigger on a daily basis. If your case load keeps doubling every few days and there are a bunch of people infected that don't show symptoms yet or haven't been tested, then guess what, you have a ton more cases than actually being reported and the number is going to keep going up unless you stop people who don't realize they're contagious from infecting other people.
If you have community transmission in your community, close shit down. If you have infected people even if not from community transmission, quarantine them and everybody they've been in contact with if you can. Slow the spread before you become Italy and your health care system is overwhelmed.
Edit: Just saw this article after posting:
The Atlantic: Cancel Everything (4 free articles before subscription required)
Because the United States has been extremely sluggish in testing patients for the coronavirus, the official tally of 604 likely represents a fraction of the real caseload. But even if we take this number at face value, it suggests that we should prepare to have up to 10 times as many cases a week from today, and up to 100 times as many cases two weeks from today.
Meanwhile, the news from Italy, another country with a highly developed medical system, has so far been shockingly bad. In the affluent region of Lombardy, for example, there have been 7,375 confirmed cases of the virus as of Sunday. Of these patients, 622 had recovered, 366 had died, and the majority were still sick. Even under the highly implausible assumption that all of the still-sick make a full recovery, this would suggest a case fatality rate of 5 percent—significantly higher, not lower, than in China.
Note that 5% is 50 times worse than the flu.
