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Author Topic: OMG, we have a possible out for this election?  (Read 2336 times)

hans

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OMG, we have a possible out for this election?
« on: October 14, 2016, 12:45:37 PM »
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-evan-mcmullin-could-win-utah-and-the-presidency/

I'm not a fan of either of our major party candidates and I don't even know anything about this guy but I kind of want to see this happen.
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charlie

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Re: OMG, we have a possible out for this election?
« Reply #1 on: October 14, 2016, 01:55:35 PM »
Yeah, saw that. It would be truly amazing if that happened, or even if the vote went to the House at all.

I honestly think there's a good chance McMullin could win Utah. But the chances Clinton fails to get to 270 are getting lower and lower.
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micah

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Re: OMG, we have a possible out for this election?
« Reply #2 on: October 14, 2016, 05:10:25 PM »
Quote from: ethic on October 14, 2016, 04:37:38 PM
how would the country respond to someone they've never heard of becoming their president.

I feel like this is actually what happens every election...its just you "get to know" the candidates through the election process.

Like who, outside of the political world, had ever heard of Obama before he ran. If you're not from Massachusetts, who ever heard of Mitt Romney or.  Or this cycle, Bernie Sanders has been around a while, but he wasn't really known to the general public.  And these VP guys? Did you know who the Govenor of Indiana was before Trump picked him as a running mate.

I wonder if part of the reason the "household name" people have done so well this time around is their name recognition.  Everyone (over 30) knows who Hillary his, and who didn't know who Trump was?

Thoughts?
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ober

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Re: OMG, we have a possible out for this election?
« Reply #3 on: October 17, 2016, 09:07:31 AM »
My thoughts:

1) While I love 538, that whole McMullin thing seems like a real long shot.  Long enough that I don't think I'll consider it reasonable.  I'm with Charlie.  The likelihood of Clinton not getting 270 at this point is pretty low.
2) I had certainly heard of Pence before the election cycle.  It was kind of hard not to with the BS he was pulling left and right in Indiana.  Maybe that is due to my proximity to the state, but that was nationally covered.  And you're always going to pull people out of the woodwork for these types of things.  But if they're reasonable, they bring a good track record to the table or no one would get behind them.
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charlie

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Re: OMG, we have a possible out for this election?
« Reply #4 on: October 17, 2016, 02:24:18 PM »
Even 538 knows it's a longshot, still a fun/crazy exercise, though.

I think many politicians do start off as unknowns outside of their respective states. Bill Clinton, John Kerry, George W. Bush, etc. However, if you've run for the nomination a couple times you start to build that name recognition, and people who are known probably do better than those that are not. This was especially true on the Republican side for a while, where it seemed like every runner-up in the primary would end up as the nominee the next time.

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