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Nothing & Everything => Open Discussion => Topic started by: Jake on October 17, 2019, 10:44:19 PM

Title: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on October 17, 2019, 10:44:19 PM
I know it is still early, but what do you guys think so far.

I think that Trump is going to win, hands down. And not because he is a "great" president, but because the democrats suck so bad. It is pretty sad to watch it all.

I wish that we had a strong libertarian candidate. But that is a long shot, so I would take someone that is right down the middle. These extremes are painful.

Shit, I would even take trump, if he didn't shit all over the environmental issues. That is a deal breaker for me. 

Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on October 17, 2019, 10:49:39 PM
That is the deal breaker for you?  Are you serious?  Trump is a half-wit that is destroying this country through bad tax plans, awful trade negotiations, divisive domestic policies, and a non-stop stream of lies.  I'm kind of floored that you would even say that.

What do you have against Warren?  She's my current favorite out of the pack.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on October 17, 2019, 10:54:55 PM
That is the deal breaker for you?  Are you serious?  Trump is a half-wit that is destroying this country through bad tax plans, awful trade negotiations, divisive domestic policies, and a non-stop stream of lies.  I'm kind of floored that you would even say that.

you say that, because you listen to NPR/CNN - if you would listen to FOX News, your outlook would be 180 degrees opposite! haha. I will try to answer your question about trump, but not today.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on October 17, 2019, 11:07:43 PM
What do you have against Warren?  She's my current favorite out of the pack.

I don't know too much about her, but from what I do know is that she wants to get rid of the electoral college - this would pretty much mean that Democrats would start a democracy of power and the states with big metropolitan areas would decide who gets elected. And I say, fuck. that.

She also wants to start taking away guns - sure, she will start with the "nasty black" ones, but that will be a start. Again, fuck. that.

And WTF is it with many of the dems wanting to sky rocket the minimum wage. It is like they do not understand simple economics! A few months ago, that clown AOC tweeted something about the price of coffee or a pastry at an airport and how because of it the minimum wage should be $15/hour. What she doesn't seem to understand that as the minimum wage grows, so do the prices of goods! I mean, for fucks sake - it IS that simple.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Perspective on October 18, 2019, 10:03:53 AM
Minimum wage here is $14/hour and our prices are on par with the US.

Also, it's Election 2019, not 2020.. voting is THIS monday Oct 21st! I'm sure you guys are following all the drama of Canadian politics :D
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on October 18, 2019, 10:09:42 AM
Increasing the minimum wage means more people have more money money to spend (there are more potential customers); which means more goods and services are purchased; which creates more jobs. It is ultimately better the economy. There is not a single product that will increase in price because people are earning a few dollars more per hour. I'd say it's more rational to believe that prices will drop as there will be more customers to compete for. Merchants generally don't know the salaries of their customers.

It will also lessen payday loans and the reliance on credit cards.

looks like higher education failed you as well, ethic. I am sorry.

Let me spin this around a bit and give you an example that directly effects me (but positively!). Do you know what the highest expense for a retailer is? in this instance a grocery store, supermarket, Kroger, target, wallmart, etc. Payroll - payroll is the biggest cost. Chicago is on track to have a $15/hr minimum wage in a couple of years. These retailers know that the only two ways to handle this increase is to A. increase the prices on their goods or B. do something to manage the increased payroll. And many are going with option B. And that mainly involves rolling out self checkouts to their stores. There isn't a kroeger around Chicago that doesn't have at least 6 of them. Many have 10-15 of them. I just opened a store in the Chicago burbs with 30! yep, 30 self checkouts. Business is booming, baby!

I'm sure you've seen it to. Not only in retail stores but in fast food places also. self serve kiosk are everywhere and the main reason for that is minimum wage getting higher.

Walmart's plan is to have 80% of all transactions go through self checkout by the end of 2020.

Just a few years ago Target vouched to never put in self checkouts - and now you will not find a store without them.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Perspective on October 18, 2019, 01:20:53 PM
>self serve kiosk are everywhere and the main reason for that is profit margins are higher.

I think this trend is independent of minimum wage. How do you possibly make 30 humans cost competitive with 30 self-checkout machines? Even if minimum wage was $2 / hour you'd still probably be ahead with self checkouts after a year or two.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on October 23, 2019, 05:37:20 PM
you say that, because you listen to NPR/CNN - if you would listen to FOX News, your outlook would be 180 degrees opposite! haha.

:eek:  :uhyeah:

I don't know too much about her, but from what I do know is that she wants to get rid of the electoral college - this would pretty much mean that Democrats would start a democracy of power and the states with big metropolitan areas would decide who gets elected. And I say, fuck. that.

 :uhyeah:

This is wrong, by the way. I don't know if she wants to get rid of the electoral college or not (she couldn't do it by herself anyway, that's like a part of the constitution), but even if it was gone it would not specifically favor the democrats. It's just "luck" that the Republican candidate has won the Presidency with fewer votes twice in the last 20 years. It could just as easily go the other way.

Maybe you're thinking of the senate, where if we had 1 person, 1 vote the democrats' position would be improved?

Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on October 23, 2019, 06:31:55 PM
I liked Warren until yesterday when she decided to jump on the anti-charter school bandwagon.  /sigh

re EC:  How is it any different than the current political setup where only a handful of states are visited?  Did you know that in the last election neither of the major party candidates visited California after the primary?  You know, the state with the most people.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on October 23, 2019, 09:14:57 PM
Why would they visit a state which they know will not swing? Something in IL - I don't think either candidate visited last time around.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on October 23, 2019, 09:16:31 PM
you say that, because you listen to NPR/CNN - if you would listen to FOX News, your outlook would be 180 degrees opposite! haha.

:eek:  :uhyeah:

I don't know too much about her, but from what I do know is that she wants to get rid of the electoral college - this would pretty much mean that Democrats would start a democracy of power and the states with big metropolitan areas would decide who gets elected. And I say, fuck. that.

 :uhyeah:

This is wrong, by the way. I don't know if she wants to get rid of the electoral college or not (she couldn't do it by herself anyway, that's like a part of the constitution), but even if it was gone it would not specifically favor the democrats. It's just "luck" that the Republican candidate has won the Presidency with fewer votes twice in the last 20 years. It could just as easily go the other way.

Maybe you're thinking of the senate, where if we had 1 person, 1 vote the democrats' position would be improved?



https://elizabethwarren.com/plans/electoral-college
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on October 23, 2019, 09:46:10 PM
I'm totally on board with getting rid of the electoral college.  It's a bullshit practice that ignores the popular vote and is based on rigged districts.  I have never understood how the people can vote in a president but he/she still loses.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on October 23, 2019, 10:39:22 PM
Without the electoral college less populous states will not matter at all. States without a large metropolitan area will not matter.
IL is a perfect example of this fact. Only the immidiate counties around Chicago (and Peoria if I remember correctly) voted Democrat; the rest of the state votes Republican. But because majority of the population is in these counties, what the rest of the state does, does not matter....I don't want that for America
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on October 23, 2019, 11:58:46 PM
That's a flawed argument that I am tired of hearing.  I don't give a shit where the people live.  If more people vote for one person, that person should win.  Why does it matter where anyone lives?  One person, one vote.  The EC actually gives more weight to the less populated areas which is equally if not more unfair. 

Your argument is one from the republican side.  You like the EC because it works in your favor when the GOP has a half decent candidate that people get behind.  Why does 'the rest of the state' matter more than the metropolitan areas?  That's like saying people in cities don't count.

Your argument for 'less populous states won't matter' doesn't stand up either.  Removing the EC completely removes the need to care about states at all!  If the whole thing is based on popular vote then the only thing that matters are how many people vote regardless of location.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on October 24, 2019, 12:08:32 AM
It matters tremendously where people live! People in rural areas care about different things than the people in the cities...and vice versa. And you can't argue with the fact that more people live in major cities than not. I also don't think you can argue that people from cities "know best" what's good for the country folks (and vice versa, again). It is two very different worlds with very different needs.

Because most people live in metropolitan areas and most metropolitan areas vote Democrat, I could say your argument to remove the ec is a purely democratic one.

You have to care about the states. Again, a state like Wyoming, or Montana, or South Dakota, will have significantly different needs than California or New York
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on October 24, 2019, 12:18:42 AM
Interesting research on this portal: https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2018/05/22/urban-suburban-and-rural-residents-views-on-key-social-and-political-issues/ I'm on page 3 so far
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on October 24, 2019, 12:24:48 AM
I could possibly support the abolishment of the ec if we got rid of the two party system
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on October 24, 2019, 12:41:13 AM
Why would they visit a state which they know will not swing? Something in IL - I don't think either candidate visited last time around.
I answered that in my post.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on October 24, 2019, 10:56:21 PM
It matters tremendously where people live! People in rural areas care about different things than the people in the cities...and vice versa. And you can't argue with the fact that more people live in major cities than not. I also don't think you can argue that people from cities "know best" what's good for the country folks (and vice versa, again). It is two very different worlds with very different needs.

Because most people live in metropolitan areas and most metropolitan areas vote Democrat, I could say your argument to remove the ec is a purely democratic one.

You have to care about the states. Again, a state like Wyoming, or Montana, or South Dakota, will have significantly different needs than California or New York
Again, you're saying that one group's concerns about who runs the country outweighs another just because of where they live.  While the President does influence general policy, the whole point of electing representatives and senators is to care about what happens in the state or district.  We don't use an EC equivalent for those positions which are technically far more important than the President to local policy.

We technically do not have a 2 party system.  If the other parties had the funding or the candidates of the main 2 parties we might be having a different discussion.  It's not like a 3rd party candidate has never taken a large chunk of the vote, although it's very rare.  There's just very little chance that most people will vote for those parties because a lot of them are extreme and the candidates that come out of those parties are a little nuts.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on October 25, 2019, 08:55:17 AM
We technically do not have a 2 party system.  If the other parties had the funding or the candidates of the main 2 parties we might be having a different discussion.  It's not like a 3rd party candidate has never taken a large chunk of the vote, although it's very rare.  There's just very little chance that most people will vote for those parties because a lot of them are extreme and the candidates that come out of those parties are a little nuts.

The first past the post voting reenforces a two party system.  Voting for a 3rd party candidate with whom you strongly align could result in the candidate that you want the least getting the spot because of the split.  Something as simple as ranked choice voting would help eliminate that.i
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on October 25, 2019, 09:16:09 AM
I would be on board with ranked choice voting.  I think it's a really interesting approach.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on October 25, 2019, 10:07:37 AM
have not heard about ranked choice voting before. Watched this video: https://youtu.be/P10PFuBFVL8

interesting...but I have to think about it.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: KnuckleBuckett on October 25, 2019, 10:32:41 AM
There is a vast portion of this country that is not represented in spirit by either party and this is on the increase.  If the lack of representation is not solved this country will not remain united and we will very likely face civil unrest not seen since the late 1800s.  Maybe new parties could be developed solely by the locations of the population.  Urban party, Suburban Party, and Rural party perhaps.  Yes. I understand that any one of you may not want that to occur because it may benefit a portion(s) of the population that you do not share values with.  Good.  Me too by the way, but those people need a real voice in the system.

Leave the electoral college alone.  It was put in place to avoid historical true democracy pitfalls, essentially avoiding peoples trends of the times, heated emotion, political disinformation, and resulting tyranny.  Pure democracies as a form of rule just never worked out and became worse with the size and power of the nation.  They have a place in a representative democracy, just like many socialist structures do, but are unwise as a determining portion of the election of a major political office.  Before you argue this read up on the failures of similar institutions throughout history when this was employed.  The EC allows for in effect a capacitance of outcome at the end of elections.  In essence it was a way to tweak in some basic form if stoicism into an election known for a distinct lack of it. The other option is to do a priority weighted average based system that is -- just deleted -- yes it is essentially the ranked choice voting as noted by Mike.  This might really muddy and or fragment the system. What I see in current elections is that when you listen to the top say twenty or so of the candidates of either party including the odd non democrat or republican, the most reasonable policies with the most likelihood of improving our nation for the better are always the first ones eliminated by said parties.  This is a large portion of why our current crisis of extremism has happened and will continue to do so.  None of the above addresses this.  The real question is, how does reasonable obtain a voice? 


I think all of our ruling political offices need significant overhaul.  Say a single six or eight year term per office without the ability to ever run for any other national or state political office afterwards.  Including president.  Serve your term as president, representative, or senator and move on.  No more dynasties and overpowered mini-empires. Yet enough time in office to make foreign powers play ball.
 The supreme court might consider mandatory retirement at a reasonable age say 70 and be elected by each party in turn without congressional oversight to the current extent.  Pay, benefits, and retirement would be based solely on the national average.  Domestic protection details would have the same limitations as that of any law abiding citizen.

This is where Charlie pukes on me.  Let the beatings begin!
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on October 25, 2019, 12:03:48 PM
Nah, I don't have much problem with anything you said there, Knuck. I'm not as concerned about civil unrest, and I definitely think there's a major problem with term limits leading to lobbyists effectively running the government, but otherwise I appreciate your entirely reasonable perspective. I tend to only speak up when I think things are based on wrong factual information or understanding.

Like Jake's Warren/Electoral college take. ;)
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on October 30, 2019, 04:22:55 PM
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/barack-obama-twitter-activism_n_5db9292ee4b0bb1ea3716bb7?fbclid=IwAR0YPkCIETvv5ykKQkjVvZJcWUoKMpZk8H5zTPy7UmpgS9OWb5EjG1V1ALU
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on October 30, 2019, 05:21:08 PM
It's a shame he can't run again.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 11, 2019, 11:36:16 AM
I don't think Warren stands a chance. I think if she will be the dem candidate that's like giving the win to Trump. She leans left too much, and independents will not vote for her (they just might stay home). From what I see now, the only way that Dems stand a chance is with Biden....
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on November 11, 2019, 04:45:20 PM
I really hope it's not Biden.  He's too out of touch, flips too much, and has said some less than inspiring things over the past few months.  I do hope Warren gets it but I hope she comes a little more center if she does.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on November 11, 2019, 05:45:27 PM
Biden would be terrible.  He is the embodiment of the rich old white guy.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: jkim on November 11, 2019, 10:51:31 PM
the only way that Dems stand a chance is with Biden....
huurrrk
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: micah on November 12, 2019, 12:59:51 AM
So, I still think Trump is a duche of a person but I'll probably vote for him again.  You crazy liberals can't pick a normal middle-of-the-road blue-collar democrat.  It's all global-warming fear mongering, trump bashing and socialist programs. Honestly, I'd (begrudgingly) be ok with an old school pro-union tax and spend democrat but Warren? or Sanders?  I know you have a rabid left-wing base but the country is still 10 or 20 years from embarrassing that kind of extremism.  Stick to your incrementalism that has worked for my entire life time...and you'll get there; but have some patience.   For now, you need to just put up an old fart white guy and cross your fingers.  Also, at funny as the "ok boomer" memes and similar rhetoric from the likes of Ocasio-Cortez may play well to the hip reddit crowd... but seriously, you're isolating everyone over 40. have some patience, your day will come.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: jkim on November 12, 2019, 09:06:17 AM
aren't you a gen X?
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: jkim on November 12, 2019, 09:14:33 AM
And actually, I think what people are worried about is that no, their day will not come. They'll die first (http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/05/poor-people-often-dont-survive-to-become-seniors-who-vote.html)
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: jkim on November 12, 2019, 09:35:08 AM
And I'm not saying I agree with every proposal Sanders or Warren or AOC has.
Do I want to cry a little when I see $1225 taking out of every paycheck? Yes. Would I rather $1100 get taken out instead to fund programs that I don't necessarily agree with or cuts funding to programs I think are important? No.

I'm merely aligning myself to values I hold closer to myself. You are entitled to yours as well.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 12, 2019, 10:28:04 AM
there is some excitement behind bloomberg entering the race. I don't know much about him yet. What do you guys think if that happened?
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on November 12, 2019, 04:23:28 PM
Global Warming isn't fear mongering
Thanks ethic.  I came to say that as well.

Micah/Jake, how can you vote for Trump when he runs things like a dictatorship?  He thinks he is above the law.  He is racist.  He's a bigot.  His immigration policy is literally ripping families apart.  He doesn't believe in global warming.  His foreign policy is laughable and is making us look like the biggest buffoons around the world.  He lies CONSTANTLY.

And I'm so sick of the 'socialist' bullshit.  You guys pin that word on every democratic policy yet there are many democracies around the world that run these proposed programs effectively in a democratic environment.  So many things are broken in this country and the republicans are not only not proposing fixes but also actively rallying against other proposals because.... why?  No one wants to work together anymore. 
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on November 12, 2019, 04:35:50 PM
Man we haven't had a good debate on here in a while.  That's what used to make this place so alive.  C'mon - let's go toe to toe!
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 12, 2019, 05:08:05 PM
I'm not sure why you're assuming that I will vote for Trump? I didn't vote for him last election, and am not planning on voting for him this time around - FYI

I'm trolling in this thread [but only a bit] to start some conversation because this forum leans heavily to the left ;)

I think I said it before. Fiscally I am quite conservative - for social issues, I don't want the government in people's life. I want a much bigger emphasis on the environment and its protection. I want to get rid of career politicians. I want a much smaller government. I want a strong military but I don't want to be the world's police force. I don't want to pay higher taxes. I don't want common core. I want to own as many guns as I can afford but I want lengthier back ground checks coupled with psychological evaluations

If you want, I can expand on any of those.

Our current political climate is too extreme. And I don't get it. I think that most people in America are closer to the middle than not. However, due to how vocal the extreme elements of both parties are, this brings in animosity and overall not very good feelings towards the other side. I think this is even more bloated out of proportion by the media.

At this time I would vote for any half way decent candidate that was a centrist - whatever party they were from.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on November 12, 2019, 09:58:38 PM
For some reason I assumed you were a Trumper based on things you've said.  My bad.  Maybe you're a bigger troll than I thought.

You had me until the common core bit.  Elaborate please. 

I generally agree with the other things you said.  Also, I don't mind paying more taxes if I get more for my money.  I'd be thrilled to pay more taxes if I didn't have to spend so much on healthcare (not equivalent to what I pay for healthcare... just to clarify).
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 12, 2019, 10:13:10 PM
Common core, as we were introduced to it in grades 1-3 was a freaking joke. That way to teach math is not intuitive, weird, and stupid. I hated it and so did my kids. I'm so happy that our school is going back to teaching math the way we were. 
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 12, 2019, 10:21:53 PM
Quote
For some reason I assumed you were a Trumper based on things you've said.  My bad.

No biggie. But I want to push a little more, because I'm not sure what in this thread made you believe it. Was it the electoral college stance? Or criticizing the Democrats and not being able to field a half way decent candidate?

Either way, I am a registered Republican. I voted for Johnson last time around. I actually voted for Obama once also. Just once though! ;) I also voted for Bush. It does not matter who I vote for because I live in a state that votes the way Chicagoland votes. I will vote for Trump if Democrats field Bernie or another extremist. Otherwise I hope there will be a good third party candidate. If there is not, I will not vote.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 12, 2019, 10:25:18 PM
As far as the trolling goes...I enjoy defending Trump because so many people I know are so much against him. But they seem to hate him for things ( for the most part ) that are not important. Look at our economy - it is the strongest it has been in a long time. Look at the markets, they are hitting records. Look at unemployment... Sure, many of these things started with Obama, but if Trump was shit, they would not continue for so long and at such pace.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 12, 2019, 10:36:40 PM
I can agree that Trump is a jerk. I also think he got caught up in to this whole thing and that he hates being president but his ego didn't let him step away from the first election and it is the reason he will run (and most likely) win next year.

I don't like the tax reform that happened last year. Personally, that took away quite a bit of money from my family.

It seems that when the Republicans are I'm charge, the upper middle class, and the rich benefit. When the Democrats are in charge, the lower class benefits. It is the lower and middle, middle class that seems to get the shaft each time. It is these people, like me, and many of you, that don't have a voice.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on November 13, 2019, 12:02:37 AM
Common core, as we were introduced to it in grades 1-3 was a freaking joke. That way to teach math is not intuitive, weird, and stupid. I hated it and so did my kids. I'm so happy that our school is going back to teaching math the way we were. 
I'm kind of surprised by this.  I actually completely agree with the way common core was designed.  It's how I do math in my head and both of my kids did REALLY well with it and continue to be in accelerated math.  No offense when I say this but I found that the people that were against it in our school either didn't take the time to understand it or were to stubborn to see the benefit of it.  I went to a public session about it at one of the schools that only further solidified that view.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on November 13, 2019, 12:06:58 AM
As far as the trolling goes...I enjoy defending Trump because so many people I know are so much against him. But they seem to hate him for things ( for the most part ) that are not important. Look at our economy - it is the strongest it has been in a long time. Look at the markets, they are hitting records. Look at unemployment... Sure, many of these things started with Obama, but if Trump was shit, they would not continue for so long and at such pace.
You said it yourself... Obama started most of it.  And the tax thing that Trump did was a gimmick and will make things worse in the long run.  Anyone that saw the plan for that 10 years out knows that we're going to owe more taxes at that point then before the 'tax cut' went into effect. 

And if you have read anything about economics, we're headed for a recession.  I blame Trump and many of his stunts for that.  Republicans always try to come in and do some 'quick fix' that makes everyone happy for a few years and then when Democrats get back in the white house and try to correct it they seem like a bunch of asshats. 
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on November 13, 2019, 12:21:33 AM
As far as the trolling goes...I enjoy defending Trump because so many people I know are so much against him. But they seem to hate him for things ( for the most part ) that are not important. Look at our economy - it is the strongest it has been in a long time. Look at the markets, they are hitting records. Look at unemployment... Sure, many of these things started with Obama, but if Trump was shit, they would not continue for so long and at such pace.

lol...

Trump is shit. He's really really bad. He's corrupt. He's incompetent. He's a buffoon. He has no sense of duty to his country or to other people.

Like, I don't really care if you vote Johnson or Bloomberg or fucking Matt Walsh. But I get really disappointed in people who are still supporting Trump.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 13, 2019, 12:53:05 AM
Quote
He's corrupt

I think we spent enough time and money trying to support this with nothing to show for it.

Quote
He's a buffoon

Yep. Agreed.


Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on November 13, 2019, 01:40:14 AM
Quote
He's corrupt

I think we spent enough time and money trying to support this with nothing to show for it.

Honestly I don't know how you can come to this conclusion if you're paying any kind of attention to what is going on. Not even trolling or trying to be mean. I just honestly struggle to understand what you could be looking at to think he's not corrupt.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 13, 2019, 01:49:20 AM
Quote
He's corrupt

I think we spent enough time and money trying to support this with nothing to show for it.

Honestly I don't know how you can come to this conclusion if you're paying any kind of attention to what is going on. Not even trolling or trying to be mean. I just honestly struggle to understand what you could be looking at to think he's not corrupt.


I think the burden is on you (or others accusing Trump of corruption) to show that he is. My visibility is limited, I admit, but enough to see no facts.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: micah on November 13, 2019, 06:18:03 AM
I actually completely agree with the way common core was designed.  It's how I do math in my head and both of my kids did REALLY well with it and continue to be in accelerated math.  No offense when I say this but I found that the people that were against it in our school either didn't take the time to understand it or were to stubborn to see the benefit of it.  I went to a public session about it at one of the schools that only further solidified that view.

Same, I was warry at first because so many people were against it and it seems silly to break everything out.... but you're exactly right, I pride my self on my (elementary) math skills and ability to do things like multiply double-digit numbers in my head or, you know, calculate a tip  :rolleyes: - so thing that so many people seem so confused by  :dunno:

My dad taught me how to think "out side the box" when I was in like 1st-4th grade when it came to math.  In that case, "the box" was traditional formulas and rote memorization.... things that are still taught in common core BUT are now expanded on by explaining the WHY and HOW first.  I love that my 2nd grader can add double digit numbers in her head and then explain how she figured it out.  (eg  37+56 is 93 because 50 + 30 is 80 and 7 + 6 is 13. 80 and 13 make 93... because 80 plus 10 is 90 and then you add 3 more.

That's common core, and it makes common sense to me.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on November 13, 2019, 08:58:08 AM
@Jake - do you live under a rock?  No offense, but there are multiple things that have come to light about Trump.  He refuses to show his tax returns.  He's made multiple attempts, one just recently with the next G7 summit, to benefit from his office.  He clearly asked Ukraine to dig up dirt on the Bidens.  The Republicans tried to sweep the Mueller report under the rug and I still believe we haven't heard the end of that.  Multiple people working on that have come out and said that there was clear obstruction of justice.  He has pressured the Fed to drop interest rates.  He's literally paid off pornstars to make his affairs go away.  Do I need to keep going?

@Micah - totally agree with you.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 13, 2019, 09:26:05 AM
Quote
Do I need to keep going?

you do need to keep going, because nothing here proves a god damn thing. The only thing I agree is shit is hosting G7 at his property - but even that, like seriously? the other stuff is fodder. Trump hopes Dems keep concentrating on things like that as that will practically give him the election.

about the Ukraine thing - read this: https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/political-commentary/whistleblower-ukraine-trump-impeach-cia-spying-895529/ 
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on November 13, 2019, 11:02:41 AM
about the Ukraine thing - read this: https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/political-commentary/whistleblower-ukraine-trump-impeach-cia-spying-895529/ 

I think maybe you just aren't tuned into what's going on or your news sources are lacking. That link says absolutely nothing about the legitimacy of the Ukraine/Biden accusations. It basically just talks about how the whistleblower in this case shouldn't be celebrated like whistleblowers in the past who sacrificed so much more than this person has.

But that has nothing to do with whether Trump asked a foreign government to investigate a political opponent, or whether the administration withheld aid with the expectation that it would be delivered once a Ukrainian investigation was announced, or whether people in the administration made efforts to hide details about all that. All the information provided by the whistleblower so far has been corroborated by additional witnesses.

It's the same shenanigans they tried to pull with the Russia allegations.. media sources friendly to Trump spend a ton of time attacking the guy who put together the Steele dossier while completely ignoring the external evidence that backs up a lot of what is included. It's sleight of hand and too many people paying limited attention to the story only see this type of report and assume it's all bunk.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 13, 2019, 12:05:50 PM
Overall, I think that instead of concentrating on digging up (or fabricating) dirt on Trump, Dems should concentrate on why they should lead this country.

In my line of work, if I tried to sell to customers by telling them why the competition sucks, I would not close very many deals. I am successful because I know my shit and show them why they need it and how their investment will bring back returns.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on November 13, 2019, 12:11:04 PM
I'm so happy that our school is going back to teaching math the way we were. 

Given how many people claim to not understand math and how acceptable math illiteracy is I'm not sure how we were taught is actually a good thing.

There is a culture of acceptable math illiteracy that I see even among teachers.  You know those math "puzzles" that people get different results from?  If we had solid math literacy then the response wouldn't be 10 or 36 but "That is a really poorly written equation, go rewrite it to be clear".  Just like if we were presented with a poorly worded argument (like everything Trump says).
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on November 13, 2019, 12:12:56 PM
Overall, I think that instead of concentrating on digging up (or fabricating) dirt on Trump, Dems should concentrate on why they should lead this country.

This is a bad take. Why are you making it about Democrats versus Republicans? Edit: Also, why would you think they're incapable of doing both? What news sources are you following that make you think Democrats are focusing on Trump and ignoring the tasks of running the country?

The amount of corruption and debasing of the office of the Presidency is staggering. This is not George Bush (or Bill Clinton). This isn't a typical President that the other side hates and wants to lose. This President is different and if you just let all his shit go, you're causing significant harm to the future of the country and the ability to ever hold any politician accountable. I'm surprised you're so blase about holding the politicians accountable for corrupt behavior. Seems like it would be something you'd be passionate about.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on November 13, 2019, 12:13:35 PM
Also... try an article like this to get up to speed on the Ukraine/impeachment topic:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-weve-already-learned-from-the-democrats-impeachment-witnesses/
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 13, 2019, 12:28:28 PM
Quote
I'm surprised you're so blase about holding the politicians accountable for corrupt behavior. Seems like it would be something you'd be passionate about.

in fact, I am, but, sadly, I think that many politicians are corrupt and very few do it from a deeper need to serve the people.

Russiagate did not prove anything. It was not the smoking gun we all thought it would be. Hardly. Should we dig more, perhaps, but at what cost, and is it worth it? Ukrainegate - I'm certain shit like that happens all the time internally and internationally. That doesn't justify it, far from it, but this alone will not make him lose the election.

Quote
This is a bad take. Why are you making it about Democrats versus Republicans?

I make it D vs R because that is realistic - nothing else is at this time. I believe most people opposed to Trump think the way you do, that this is a bad take, and that is why Trump will be president for the next 4 years. You really don't think fielding a great candidate with a strong centrist platform that represents the majority of America is a better strategy than looking for naughty things Trump did. I think it is very obvious that at this time, other than coming out gay or something, Trump supporters will vote for him no matter what.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 13, 2019, 12:45:15 PM
Also... try an article like this to get up to speed on the Ukraine/impeachment topic:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-weve-already-learned-from-the-democrats-impeachment-witnesses/


thanks, I'll read it tonight.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 13, 2019, 12:46:24 PM
Man we haven't had a good debate on here in a while.  That's what used to make this place so alive.  C'mon - let's go toe to toe!

is this good enough? I just need some help! :)
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on November 13, 2019, 01:13:19 PM
I'm loving this.  :D  And I swear we're not trying to gang up on you.  If you were right we wouldn't have to.  LOL
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: KnuckleBuckett on November 14, 2019, 06:08:35 AM
As the parties currently stand you can let corporations run the country or socialism happen.   :suicide2:
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Perspective on November 14, 2019, 09:23:10 AM
Why the fear of "socialism"? I find it funny that Americans are happy with publicly funded schools, emergency services, city/state infrastructure, but cringe in fear over the idea of publicly funding other essential services like health care. It works in literally every other 1st world country in the world, why not make 'merica great and fund the basic needs of your citizens?
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on November 14, 2019, 11:07:35 AM
Why the fear of "socialism"? I find it funny that Americans are happy with publicly funded schools, emergency services, city/state infrastructure, but cringe in fear over the idea of publicly funding other essential services like health care. It works in literally every other 1st world country in the world, why not make 'merica great and fund the basic needs of your citizens?
This.  Allllllllll this.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Threadkiller on November 14, 2019, 12:03:24 PM
 :popcorn2:
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on November 14, 2019, 12:57:33 PM
:popcorn2:
I've got to say there is a striking similarity between Trump and Johnson.  Like their terrible hair
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: KnuckleBuckett on November 15, 2019, 06:08:52 AM
Why the fear of "socialism"? I find it funny that Americans are happy with publicly funded schools, emergency services, city/state infrastructure, but cringe in fear over the idea of publicly funding other essential services like health care. It works in literally every other 1st world country in the world, why not make 'merica great and fund the basic needs of your citizens?
This.  Allllllllll this.

Happy.  With publicly funded schools?  Have you seen the ever decreasing quality of any public services?  If you think that I want healthcare in those morons hands you gotta be nuts.  Socialist entities are a wonderful check / balance to a capitalist society.  Turn it around and you get hate by your group not your achievements.  You also end up with mass murder by the millions, one group at a time in order of who threatens the administration that takes power most.  Well until you have destroyed so many and so much you end up as a USSR, China, or the like.  Know of any socialist governments that are places you would have wanted to live?
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on November 15, 2019, 08:38:13 AM
Why the fear of "socialism"? I find it funny that Americans are happy with publicly funded schools, emergency services, city/state infrastructure, but cringe in fear over the idea of publicly funding other essential services like health care. It works in literally every other 1st world country in the world, why not make 'merica great and fund the basic needs of your citizens?
This.  Allllllllll this.

Happy.  With publicly funded schools?  Have you seen the ever decreasing quality of any public services?  If you think that I want healthcare in those morons hands you gotta be nuts.  Socialist entities are a wonderful check / balance to a capitalist society.  Turn it around and you get hate by your group not your achievements.  You also end up with mass murder by the millions, one group at a time in order of who threatens the administration that takes power most.  Well until you have destroyed so many and so much you end up as a USSR, China, or the like.  Know of any socialist governments that are places you would have wanted to live?
You claim it's a 'wonderful check/balance' but it's wildly out of control.  Insurance doesn't cover shit and rates just keep going up.  You seem to think that it's either what we have or what China has.  Like there is no middle ground.  That seems like a wild exaggeration.  I remember when insurance covered most of every visit and premiums weren't that bad.  And then all of a sudden everyone has these high deductible plans which everyone seems ok with but it makes no sense.  How is it that the rates / premiums keep going up but we keep getting less and less coverage out of it?  Explain that to me!  It is broken as fuck and MANY countries have state run healthcare that works and doesn't make their people poor in the process.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Threadkiller on November 15, 2019, 11:31:50 AM
:popcorn2:
I've got to say there is a striking similarity between Trump and Johnson.  Like their terrible hair

... and the fact that they are both absolute buffoons.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Threadkiller on November 15, 2019, 11:34:23 AM
MANY countries have state run healthcare that works and doesn't make their people poor in the process.
:cool:

:dblthumb2:
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on November 15, 2019, 02:32:42 PM
I was talking with a co-worker about random political stuff (mostly climate change) and it was really striking to me how the conversation kept coming back to his fear/aversion/etc of socialism. And his mind it was always Venezuela or USSR and never Norway or Canada.

Doesn't mean he's necessarily wrong. It's possible that increasing the role of the federal government in certain areas could lead us on the path of failed communist states. But, like, I could never get him to explain why those examples were more applicable than social democracies that are doing just fine now.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on November 15, 2019, 02:51:04 PM
I added a poll... US only. Select your favorite or favorites if you have a couple.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Threadkiller on November 15, 2019, 03:52:07 PM
Hey, we're having an election too you know. Only one thing scares me more than Boris getting back in, an that's the opposition getting in.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on November 15, 2019, 05:13:55 PM
Doesn't the UK have a "very sucks, give us a new slate" option?
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: KnuckleBuckett on November 15, 2019, 08:42:35 PM
Why the fear of "socialism"? I find it funny that Americans are happy with publicly funded schools, emergency services, city/state infrastructure, but cringe in fear over the idea of publicly funding other essential services like health care. It works in literally every other 1st world country in the world, why not make 'merica great and fund the basic needs of your citizens?
This.  Allllllllll this.

Happy.  With publicly funded schools?  Have you seen the ever decreasing quality of any public services?  If you think that I want healthcare in those morons hands you gotta be nuts.  Socialist entities are a wonderful check / balance to a capitalist society.  Turn it around and you get hate by your group not your achievements.  You also end up with mass murder by the millions, one group at a time in order of who threatens the administration that takes power most.  Well until you have destroyed so many and so much you end up as a USSR, China, or the like.  Know of any socialist governments that are places you would have wanted to live?
You claim it's a 'wonderful check/balance' but it's wildly out of control.  Insurance doesn't cover shit and rates just keep going up.  You seem to think that it's either what we have or what China has.  Like there is no middle ground.  That seems like a wild exaggeration.  I remember when insurance covered most of every visit and premiums weren't that bad.  And then all of a sudden everyone has these high deductible plans which everyone seems ok with but it makes no sense.  How is it that the rates / premiums keep going up but we keep getting less and less coverage out of it?  Explain that to me!  It is broken as fuck and MANY countries have state run healthcare that works and doesn't make their people poor in the process.

None our size and what is broken as fuck is that we no longer allow socialism to check / balance capitalism.  Now we reap the rewards of such a system and cry that only full socialism can work.  I disagree.  Stop outlawing things like unions public and private.  Give the unrepresented a voice again.  I went over a few of my proposals in another thread and even Char didn't bite my head off.  You know me well enough not to push that BS above on me.  I understand shit ain't right but the current set of fucking human feces up for the presidency has NO upside.  We should round them up and imprison them for life.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on November 18, 2019, 09:13:58 PM
Why the fear of "socialism"? I find it funny that Americans are happy with publicly funded schools, emergency services, city/state infrastructure, but cringe in fear over the idea of publicly funding other essential services like health care. It works in literally every other 1st world country in the world, why not make 'merica great and fund the basic needs of your citizens?

And while we are here, the Dutch are paying for prostitutes for disabled people (https://www.popdust.com/the-netherlands-pays-for-disabled-citizens-to-have-sex-with-prostitute-1890879447.html)
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 20, 2019, 09:51:45 AM
As far as healthcare is involved, I think I could live with a Canadian type of single payer solution. One of the biggest issues with government funded healthcare is wait times. I don't know how it is in Canada, but I have relatives peppered around the EU and in all cases, the biggest complaint is frequent need to wait to go see a specialist - wait times that are would sound unreasonable to most of us in the states. And if you want to go see someone right away, you still end up going "private" and paying out of your own pocket.

And a very real example: my 90 year old grand mother living in Poland needed eye surgery for cataracts (or something like that) - it took close to two years to get both eyes done.

I don't know what the perfect system is. I hate most of what we have right now and how expensive insurance is. I mean, it is ridiculous - this year just health insurance for my family cost just over $9K and we have a middle of the road plan. This year was really the first year we all had to go see a doctor, and our bills on top of the $9k were about $1K.

Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 20, 2019, 10:12:28 AM
Socialism works great on paper, but not in practice. I was very little when Poland has overthrown their red oppressor after over 50 years of communism in 1989. These 50 years of socialist rule set that country back 200 years! I don't remember much of it, if at all, but I heard many, many stories from my family members.

I'll share the more ludicrous one with you: under communism, every one "received" housing from the government. For the most part, you didn't have a choice, you had to live in an apartment that was assigned to you. My dad knew someone in a wheelchair that was assigned an apartment in a multi story building on one of the top floors. The only problem, the building never had a working elevator. The man appealed, but was never given another flat. This one sat empty for years as he lived with relatives out side of the city.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 20, 2019, 10:21:29 AM
I don't want to be "made" or "told" to help others. I don't want to pay 50%+ taxes to support abusers of the social systems. Shit, I don't want to pay the taxes I pay now to do it either. I don't want to pay and deal with more bureaucracy - most government managed agencies are inefficient and bloated - if private companies were ran like that, they would never survive. When I visit institutions like that, and I see the way many of the people there "work", it makes me sick.

The "union" mentality makes me sick too. My cousin who works in a sheet metal union shop got "ratted" on twice by fellow workers - once for working too fast, and another time for working on machines he was not certified on. It backfired because that just made him get a fast track to the level he is on now because the owner did not want to lose him. But to this day, he doesn't have many friends in the shop because of his [great] work ethic.

Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 20, 2019, 10:47:10 AM
I also don't want to be told how to be tolerant. I feel like tolerance for various marginalized groups is being forced down our throats. We are told how we should feel about it. I say, fuck that.

I don't want my kids to be learning about certain things from their teachers in school.

this type of shit makes me not want to ever vote for a democrat

https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/breaking/ct-lgbtq-history-illinois-schools-law-20190826-m2k4qtpiifhkzp5a76dwtwlbwy-story.html
https://www.npr.org/local/309/2019/09/16/761172388/palatine-open-to-full-transgender-bathroom-rights-for-students

I also think that this type of SJW bullshit is hurting democrats a lot more than they know.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on November 20, 2019, 11:27:58 AM
Yes, because recognizing minorities and giving people access to bathrooms is such a terrible burden and imposition upon Good White Christians.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 20, 2019, 12:08:30 PM
Yes, because recognizing minorities and giving people access to bathrooms is such a terrible burden and imposition upon Good White Christians.

if that is your argument, and that is the way you think of me, then we can just stop this discussion, because it will not lead anywhere.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on November 20, 2019, 12:25:10 PM
Well, what is your argument of why people shouldn't be able to use the bathroom?  Or why shouldn't schools educate students on the impacts of LGBTQ people?  I personally think that we should educate people on Alan Turning, his contributions, and how he was ostracized and very likely driven to suicide for simply being gay.

The arguments I've heard against these stances are the very same arguments used against people of color back in the 60s and 70s.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 20, 2019, 02:40:04 PM
Or why shouldn't schools educate students on the impacts of LGBTQ people? 

because I don't think that it is necessary to stress that this person was gay, or that person was black, yellow, white, whatever. I think we should stress the importance of that person and what they have done, instead of what it says on their facebook profile...constantly having breaking down people into groups has might have an adverse effect - and I think it does. It just points out how different we are, where I think that the point would be to show how similar.

Real life example: I live in a Chicago suburb, that means that the make up of my kids' classrooms is very culturally rich and colorful. There are two black kids in my son's class, a boy and a girl. The girl is quite mischievous and not very nice to the other kids. Anyway, my son asked me a couple weeks ago why she is treated different than he is as well as other kids. When there is punishment handed out for the same bad behavior, hers is always different. As far as we know, she doesn't have a mental issue or a disability, she just misbehaves more than most - but her parents are very outspoken and when in earlier grades she was punished, they would make a big stink about it publicly. And ever since, the school's faculty takes a different approach. Now, whose fault is that? it is not the girl's - kids are kids, and some are worst behaved than others. It is not the parents - they are standing up for their kid like most parents would. I think it is the faculty's fault - instead of treating everyone the same and fairly, they are not - and the reason (at least in my eyes) is the skin color. Behaviors like that is what places wedges between races.

I'll give you another example, from my childhood. I went to a Chicago public school through grade 8. In the 8th grade, there was a black kid that would torment me  - he would call me a stupid polack among other things daily. Finally, one day I called him a dumb nigger, or something like that. He went and told on me. And even though multiple other kids told the teacher he called me a polack for many weeks, I got suspended and he got a warning. Again, kids are kids and we both shouldn't have said what we did, but the white principal decided to make it a race thing because she was [more than likely] scare of repercussions of giving the black boy the same punishment as she did to me.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 20, 2019, 02:46:22 PM
BTW - I'm done trolling for trump in this thread - it is quite exhausting pretending to root for him. The guy is a piece of shit of a human being - I still doubt he will get impeached, but hope so. Unfortunately, he will be affecting our lives for many years into the future.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 20, 2019, 02:55:17 PM
what is your argument of why people shouldn't be able to use the bathroom?

I certainly don't want boys that identify as girls being able to use the same bathroom as my daughter in grade school, middle, or high school. And vice versa. After you turn 18, identify as a deer, as far as I'm concern, and do whatever you want. But don't force the issue of using another gender's bathroom. If you have a Y chromosome, use a urinal. Again, instead of making people feel inclusive, it seems like we are trying to go out of our way to show the differences.

Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on November 20, 2019, 03:04:07 PM
because I don't think that it is necessary to stress that this person was gay, or that person was black, yellow, white, whatever. I think we should stress the importance of that person and what they have done, instead of what it says on their facebook profile...constantly having breaking down people into groups has might have an adverse effect - and I think it does. It just points out how different we are, where I think that the point would be to show how similar.

I have a couple problems with this thinking:

One is that people have been constantly broken down into groups and separated by their differences. Saying you don't want to do that only now that it is being done to help marginalized groups, well, it doesn't seem like the best timing does it?

Second, people are still discriminated against. So the separation into groups that leads to negative consequences for minorities is still happening. If it's still happening in that direction then even if you disagree with it going the other direction I don't see how it could bother you or be a major factor in your political preferences.

Like think about it... of all the things affecting the country and the world today, you're basing a significant amount of your political choices on being upset about being told (i.e. asked) to be tolerant??
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on November 20, 2019, 03:05:23 PM
Jake - I don't disagree with your reasoning behind the cultural stuff.  To some degree, I agree that constantly bringing up the issues just reiterates the 'lines' in society and does nothing to suppress them.  I think our kids are being raised in a far more tolerant society than the one we were raised in.  That doesn't mean it's perfect and a lot of people died or fought for the way things are today.  I think that needs to be recognized in some way.  But maybe not as blatantly as it's being pursued by some schools.

On your other notes, I am not advocating for socialism in any way.  I also don't think the current democratic candidates are either.  People put that label on their policy suggestions because they fear it.  But something has to change.  We can't keep doing what we're doing.  You tout private companies as doing things better but they're not.  They're just as corrupt as any other organization. 
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 20, 2019, 03:37:43 PM
Like think about it... of all the things affecting the country and the world today, you're basing a significant amount of your political choices on being upset about being told (i.e. asked) to be tolerant??

yes, I agree, that's fucked up - but it seems like I have no choice. I feel we live in a all or nothing political atmosphere. We are forced to vote for the people that represent the fringe, and with that comes the left and right extremism - why, because those sides are so vocal, and both parties want to cater to them. Whereas, I think, most of America is not that way - but they need to vote one or the other due to lack of choice.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 20, 2019, 03:46:07 PM
You tout private companies as doing things better but they're not.  They're just as corrupt as any other organization. 

I never mentioned corruption. My point was about efficiency - and lack there of as being a chronic problem of governmental agencies. Why should workers be on a raise schedule that is not tied in to their performance. In most government and other union environments, the guy that works his ass off gets the same raise as the one that does the bare minimum - and that's fucked imo. Again, if private companies ran the same way, they would never succeed.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on November 20, 2019, 04:10:32 PM
Like think about it... of all the things affecting the country and the world today, you're basing a significant amount of your political choices on being upset about being told (i.e. asked) to be tolerant??

yes, I agree, that's fucked up - but it seems like I have no choice. I feel we live in a all or nothing political atmosphere. We are forced to vote for the people that represent the fringe, and with that comes the left and right extremism - why, because those sides are so vocal, and both parties want to cater to them. Whereas, I think, most of America is not that way - but they need to vote one or the other due to lack of choice.

well, I mean you have the choice to not let that kind of stuff be part of your decision making...

although if I'm being honest I should be happy if you do because if these kinds of social issues really were a big part of your decision making and you were forced to choose between a Republican party that supports racist policies and openly embraces white supremacists against a Democratic party that tells people to be more tolerant and gets mad when they aren't, I'm not sure that's much of a choice.

I don't love the Democratic party but they're head and shoulders above Republicans on this stuff. People obnoxiously telling me to be tolerant will always be preferred to people quietly asking me to be intolerant.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 20, 2019, 04:15:28 PM
People obnoxiously telling me to be tolerant will always be preferred to people quietly asking me to be intolerant.

Point taken. I have not looked at it that way.

Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 20, 2019, 04:16:35 PM
I just noticed someone added a poll to this thread - I wonder who else voted third party? reveal yourself.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 20, 2019, 04:21:39 PM
this type of shit irks me as well

https://reason.com/2019/11/20/democrats-overwhelmingly-vote-to-give-trumps-people-more-spying-power/
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on November 20, 2019, 09:59:43 PM
Something isn't right with that poll.  Only 6 people voted but there's a hell of a lot more than 6 votes.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on November 21, 2019, 12:35:35 AM
Obviously.... but why?
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on November 21, 2019, 02:35:47 PM
Obviously.... but why?

Because some people like more than one option, especially out of the 17 dem candidates.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 21, 2019, 02:55:57 PM
hey Perspective, how does your experience match this? the video is ten years old

https://youtu.be/q2jijuj1ysw

Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 21, 2019, 03:09:35 PM
more recent video https://youtu.be/heK471H-s1s?t=352
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on November 21, 2019, 06:24:09 PM
That video (watched the 2nd one) makes me laugh a little... the tone makes it sound like it's trying to emphasize the downside of Canadian Healthcare, but then it says stuff like:


53% of Canadians say they couldn't get care within 48 hours when they needed it!!!
(42% of Americans said the same)

18% of Canadians say they waited 4 months for elective surgery! 18%!!! Elective!!!

Canadians complain of long wait times!
(Some provinces have shorter waiting times than the United States.)

Canadians spend $670 per capita on retail prescription drugs!
(Americans spend $1000 per capita on retail prescription drugs.)

94% of Canadians are proud of their health care system.

Shit, if we could get all that here and also provide universal coverage and prevent people from going bankrupt due to medical bills I'd be all over it.


this type of shit irks me as well

https://reason.com/2019/11/20/democrats-overwhelmingly-vote-to-give-trumps-people-more-spying-power/


Yeah, libertarian-leaners who hate the Patriot Act have a lot to be mad at from both parties.


Maybe I'm just inferring incorrectly but I read these posts from you Jake as critiques of liberal policy positions. But they're really not at all...
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: KnuckleBuckett on November 22, 2019, 06:27:48 AM
Bah.  Canada has a population the size of a couple of US States and they can't control their health care system.  The very first thing the US needs to STOP doing is comparing ourselves to all of these other sate sized, in population, countries.  These problems do not scale well.  Healthcare is only one of them.

We ALREADY have socialized healthcare in Medicare-Medicaid and it is a mess.  I can't even imagine forcing that on all of our health care.  I agree that there are huge issues.  Huge.  I am telling you forcing full socialized healthcare in the Sates would be a train wreck.  Another thing.  Healthcare is not a right.  It is a privilege.  Enforcing it would be illegal, and we don't even enforce the rights we have we erode them.

I don't have a solution, I doubt that there is a pat solution.  This is an issue with so many guilty parties that it boggles the mind.  Taking another 20% of my income to "fix" this is not a viable solution.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on November 22, 2019, 08:32:59 AM
Whoa whoa whoa.  Healthcare is a privilege?  Really?  We shouldn't take care of the people in our society?  People should just fend for themselves in all cases?  I do NOT agree with that at all.

Also, Medicare isn't perfect but my in-laws are quite happy with it.  I've talked to other people on it and they have no issues with it.  YMMV of course but if that's the model that would be available to the rest of it, it doesn't seem all that terrible.

I don't disagree that we're much larger than some of the countries that have this.  That doesn't mean it cannot scale well.  That's a very black and white line of thinking.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Threadkiller on November 22, 2019, 09:16:37 AM
Another thing.  Healthcare is not a right.  It is a privilege.

Can't say how much I disagree with this...
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on November 22, 2019, 11:47:34 AM
Taking another 20% of my income to "fix" this is not a viable solution.

Honestly curious... was this meant to be hyperbole or do you think that's how much a health care overhaul would affect people's incomes?
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: micah on November 22, 2019, 12:21:10 PM
Taking another 20% of my income to "fix" this is not a viable solution.

Honestly curious... was this meant to be hyperbole or do you think that's how much a health care overhaul would affect people's incomes?

for what it's worth, 2.9% of pay currently goes directly to medicare, which is used by 15% of the population.  Extrapolating that out, is pretty close to 20% if everyone was on medicare. Obviously economies of scale and other factors will heavily influence that final number; but it's not completely insane; Sweeden's top tax rate is 56.6% (for all taxes) for those with an income as low as $85k USD.  So.... yeah, that's  lot of taxes to let someone else run your life.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on November 22, 2019, 01:47:56 PM
I'm not sure that makes sense to look at it that way, though.

There are different ways to pay for universal coverage, none proposed so far come close to adding an additional 20% tax on anybody.

But more importantly, in the scenario where everybody went on medicare, you would be on medicare also and would no longer be paying thousands of dollars a year in medical costs. Between the amount I pay in premiums and copays and the amount my employer pays, that's getting pretty close to 20% of my income. That's means my tax rate would have to increase to by 30-40% for me to actually have to have an additional 20% of my income go to solving this problem.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: KnuckleBuckett on November 22, 2019, 06:55:05 PM
Ben.  Just because something might or might not be a good idea morally or ethically does not make it a right.  You might want it to be, but read the Constitution and Bill of Rights, it isn't in there.

Yes. The healthcare system here has major issues. I think we agree on this.  My wife has made a career in this system.  I get it.  Higher taxes aren't the way to remedy these issues.  We in the US already spend enough on healthcare.  Maybe doing a better job with the money already apportioned for this might be a place to start.  Get the damned money to the people that need it.  Start here. 
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: KnuckleBuckett on November 23, 2019, 08:03:10 AM
We have had several amendments in "modern" times.  The most recent in the 90s.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on November 23, 2019, 11:20:39 AM
We have had several amendments in "modern" times.  The most recent in the 90s.
The one ratified in 1992 was submitted to the states was submitted in 1789 and had to do with delaying congressional salary changes.  Yeah, the paragon of modern issues.

But let's look at what else has been ratified in the last 50 years:
* Lowers the voting age to 18 (26th - 1971)

Oh jeez, how about the last 100
* Presidential succession (25th - 1967)
* Prohibits poll taxes (24th - 1962)
* Grants DC electors (23rd - 1961)
* Term limits for president (22nd - 1951)
* Repeals 18th amendment (21st - 1933)
* Changes start date for congress and president (20th - 1933)
* Women's right to vote (19th - 1920)
* Alcohol bad (18th - 1919)

Really, looking at the list of amendments most of the after the initial 10 don't deal with new issues but instead just tweak the existing rules.

Quote
You might want it to be, but read the Constitution and Bill of Rights, it isn't in there.

You may want to read the 9th amendment:
> The enumeration in the Constitution, of certain rights, shall not be construed to deny or disparage others retained by the people.

So, just because it isn't in the Constitution doesn't mean it isn't a right.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: micah on November 23, 2019, 04:30:29 PM
The only inalienable rights we have are the God-given right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.

The other "rights" in the constitution are limits on government affording us Freedom; the amendments are not granting the people any new privileges that we would not already have if we were not governed.

The rights to free speech, or to assemble or protest, or petition congress, or carry a gun, or not have your property taken or your home searched without cause, are not free gifts granted by government that you would otherwise not have were there no government; instead, they are freedom from government.  They are laws to prevent oppression.   "Free healthcare" or "Free college" are NOT RIGHTS. 
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on November 23, 2019, 08:16:44 PM
I would think that the right to life implies the ability to seek medical aid.  And, if the ability to seek that aid is curtailed by going into financial ruin then we are not supporting that right nor the right of liberty.

I find it morally and ethically reprehensible that the collective response is "don't be poor".
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: micah on November 23, 2019, 09:03:11 PM
I would think that the right to life implies the ability to seek medical aid.  And, if the ability to seek that aid is curtailed by going into financial ruin then we are not supporting that right nor the right of liberty.

I find it morally and ethically reprehensible that the collective response is "don't be poor".

Yes, the right to life and liberty completely means you have the ability to seek medical aid.  And if the government was going to make a law that said only certain people could seek medical help, or that only some medical procedures could be allowed (yes, that's an abortion concession I'm making) then that WOULD be a violation of our rights.  I also agree 100% that if cost or some other factor curtails the ability to seek aid that it totally sucks.  But we (this group) were talking about rights guaranteed by the constitution and my point was that the bill of rights is there to stop the government from interfering in freedom.   Just like you can't yell fire in a theater or carry a gun at Six Flags; the bill of rights does not guarantee or defend your personal rights from anyone other than the government.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on November 23, 2019, 11:00:18 PM
I'm with Knuck and Micah on the rights vs privilege thing. I don't consider healthcare a right.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on November 23, 2019, 11:15:33 PM
I would think that the right to life implies the ability to seek medical aid.  And, if the ability to seek that aid is curtailed by going into financial ruin then we are not supporting that right nor the right of liberty.

I find it morally and ethically reprehensible that the collective response is "don't be poor".

Yes, the right to life and liberty completely means you have the ability to seek medical aid.  And if the government was going to make a law that said only certain people could seek medical help, or that only some medical procedures could be allowed (yes, that's an abortion concession I'm making) then that WOULD be a violation of our rights.  I also agree 100% that if cost or some other factor curtails the ability to seek aid that it totally sucks.  But we (this group) were talking about rights guaranteed by the constitution and my point was that the bill of rights is there to stop the government from interfering in freedom.   Just like you can't yell fire in a theater or carry a gun at Six Flags; the bill of rights does not guarantee or defend your personal rights from anyone other than the government.

Just to be clear, I was arguing that Knuck's argument that healthcare isn't a right because the constitution doesn't enumerate it is just plain wrong given the 9th amendment.  The constitution doesn't enumerate all rights.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on November 23, 2019, 11:23:42 PM
I do believe a goal of modern, wealthy society should be to ensure its citizens* have access certain basic "privileges". In other words, one goal of the government should be to "promote the general welfare".

I personally believe that can include access to food, shelter, basic healthcare and an iPhone.

The iPhone part was a joke, but I don't think there should be a hard and fast rule on what the "general welfare" includes. I think it should depend on the will of the people and the ability of the society to provide the "privilege" weighed against the cost (not just in money but in how it affects the privileges of other citizens). Most of our citizens agree that we can afford to ensure everybody in the U.S. has access to food and shelter. In my opinion I think we can also ensure all people in the U.S. have reasonable access to healthcare.

In other words, the question of whether it's a right or a privilege is moot for me. Food and shelter aren't rights either. But we should have it as a goal of our society to ensure they are available for every person here. I think we can do a much better job of it without significant cost if the government takes a larger role.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on November 23, 2019, 11:27:20 PM
Sorry it took so long to respond, it has been a really long week.

Or why shouldn't schools educate students on the impacts of LGBTQ people? 

because I don't think that it is necessary to stress that this person was gay, or that person was black, yellow, white, whatever. I think we should stress the importance of that person and what they have done, instead of what it says on their facebook profile...constantly having breaking down people into groups has might have an adverse effect - and I think it does. It just points out how different we are, where I think that the point would be to show how similar.

This is because you are part of the majority culture.  It is easy for us to go "focus on what is the same between us" when we aren't being ignored and beaten down.  I think it is important to intentionally show the works and contributions of the minority cultures so that we can lift them up and show that - while different - they are deserving of respect and dignity.

I was recently thinking about a story I saw about a black kid being shown a Miles Morales comic and his reaction to seeing someone that looked like him as Spider Man.

That said, some people in all groups are just dicks and will blame everyone else.

Side note: I do find it interesting on how the definition of "white" has changed over the last century. At some point the Irish and Italians (and certainly not the Poles) weren't considered white.  Then the term solely grew to encompass more and more European groups.  It is also interesting how that definition shifts depending on the part of the country.  Like, around here you'd be white but I've seen evidence of other parts of the country that would not include Polish people in their definition of white.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on March 03, 2020, 02:03:36 AM
Re-doing the poll. It's really down to Sanders or Biden for the Democratic nomination now.

Took a screenshot of the original poll for posterity.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on March 03, 2020, 08:58:36 AM
If Bernie is the Dem candidate, I will actually vote for Trump. If it's Biden, I will vote third party. The only Dem possibility that can sway me is Bloomberg, but it looks like that will not happen. Either way, it looks like 4 more years of Trump
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: jkim on March 03, 2020, 09:07:11 AM
Why would Bloomberg sway you?
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on March 03, 2020, 09:09:41 AM
What the fuck is wrong with you?  Bloomberg?  Really?

And you are seriously trying to tell us that you would vote for the person who has been actively working against the interests of the nation to his own fulfillment and who has mas made a mockery of our nation on the international stage because the main opponent wants people to not die because of healthcare costs?  That is your position?
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on March 03, 2020, 09:21:38 AM
I'm going to be sad when Biden gets the nomination.  He is the pinnacle of out of touch old white guy.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on March 03, 2020, 09:30:20 AM
What the fuck is wrong with you?  Bloomberg?  Really?

And you are seriously trying to tell us that you would vote for the person who has been actively working against the interests of the nation to his own fulfillment and who has mas made a mockery of our nation on the international stage because the main opponent wants people to not die because of healthcare costs?  That is your position?

Mike, I will not argue with you, because there is no point - your stance shows me you're not open to any discussion anyway. So forgive me for ignoring your posts lately.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on March 03, 2020, 09:34:44 AM
Why would Bloomberg sway you?

several reasons: he is hugely successful and pretty much self made; from what I know he did a great job running one of the biggest cities in the world during several moments of crisis, I like his stance on the environment. I also think he can sway a lot of middle of the way reps. What I don't like about him is his gun stance.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on March 03, 2020, 09:51:13 AM
What the fuck is wrong with you?  Bloomberg?  Really?

And you are seriously trying to tell us that you would vote for the person who has been actively working against the interests of the nation to his own fulfillment and who has mas made a mockery of our nation on the international stage because the main opponent wants people to not die because of healthcare costs?  That is your position?

Mike, I will not argue with you, because there is no point - your stance shows me you're not open to any discussion anyway. So forgive me for ignoring your posts lately.
Well, perhaps if you didn't take such closed minded and offensive positions I might be more open.  I'm not going to compromise my principals in order to appease hate, bigotry, or willful ignorance.



And if you think that was offensive then just look at Trump's behavior and fucking realize his is even worse.
Open your fucking eyes to what Trump has done and what the Republican party has allowed him to continue doing.  For fuck's sake, no one is asking you to vote blue but you can at least call him out on his shit and not support him.

Why would Bloomberg sway you?

several reasons: he is hugely successful and pretty much self made; from what I know he did a great job running one of the biggest cities in the world during several moments of crisis, I like his stance on the environment. I also think he can sway a lot of middle of the way reps. What I don't like about him is his gun stance.
You forgot to mention that he is actually a Republican pretending to be a Democrat.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on March 03, 2020, 06:03:24 PM
Yeah... I know we've had this conversation already but I really don't get the Trump thing. I mean I get some people hate the idea of socialism and are anti-Bernie all the way (even though he will not implement anything close to socialism if he is president). But being "ok" with 4 more years of Trump even if he goes up against a normal candidate like Biden just does not compute.

I'm always happy to discuss but I'm not sure there is a cogent argument for Trump that fits within the reality that I'm aware of.
 
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on March 03, 2020, 07:24:55 PM
I mean I get some people hate the idea of socialism and are anti-Bernie all the way (even though he will not implement anything close to socialism if he is president).
One of my biggest turn-offs with Bernie this cycle is his promising the moon and back.  I don't disagree with most of them but I also think that a lot of them are unattainable at this time.  Kinda wish he would focus on a few critical issues.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on March 03, 2020, 11:18:44 PM
i'm glad that dems came somewhat to their senses and voted for biden today. as much as some of you don't like him, with the thrashing that Bloomberg got, Biden is the only chance. A very slim chance, but the only one. If Sanders was the candidate you would have many people like me voting for Trump even though they wouldn't want to. Bernie just needs to retire in one of his three houses and stop this nonsense. Dems need to take the next 4.5 years to re-examine their platform so that they can field a candidate that people can stand behind. Mayor Pete, Liz Warren and the rest are not it! So to all the registered dems, you can thank yourselves for Trump's second term. I don't see him losing unless something huge happens in the geo-political spectrum.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on March 03, 2020, 11:21:36 PM
I mean I get some people hate the idea of socialism and are anti-Bernie all the way (even though he will not implement anything close to socialism if he is president).
One of my biggest turn-offs with Bernie this cycle is his promising the moon and back.  I don't disagree with most of them but I also think that a lot of them are unattainable at this time.  Kinda wish he would focus on a few critical issues.

I'm no political scientist so I can't really say what strategies work better for winning elections than others, but I'm looking for somebody to make clear:

1) Their vision of ideal solutions
 plus
2) The realistic solutions they think they can either implement as President or pass through Congress


I'm guessing that wouldn't be a great way to win the most votes as it wouldn't be a clear message but that's what I'd prefer.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on March 03, 2020, 11:21:50 PM
i'm glad that dems came somewhat to their senses and voted for biden today. as much as some of you don't like him, with the thrashing that Bloomberg got, Biden is the only chance. A very slim chance, but the only one. If Sanders was the candidate you would have many people like me voting for Trump even though they wouldn't want to. Bernie just needs to retire in one of his three houses and stop this nonsense. Dems need to take the next 4.5 years to re-examine their platform so that they can field a candidate that people can stand behind. Mayor Pete, Liz Warren and the rest are not it! So to all the registered dems, you can thank yourselves for Trump's second term. I don't see him losing unless something huge happens in the geo-political spectrum.

Lol
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: micah on March 04, 2020, 06:36:39 AM
totally agree with Charlie.
I'm going to vote for Trump either way - not that it matter living in an electoral college blue-state.

I think social media has emboldened the radical left to feel like they are mainstream.  But the majority of people are much more central in ideology (on both sides, whether they individually realize it or not).  The populous doesn't want a crazy bernie or warren.  They can't stand elitists like bloomberg. As much as trump leaves a bad taste in so many people's mouths -- things are actually going pretty well right now and, statistically speaking, that bodes pretty well for a sitting president.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on March 04, 2020, 08:33:02 AM
You both fucking suck and should be ashamed of yourselves.  Do neither of you have a fucking conscience or morals?

Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on March 04, 2020, 08:41:01 AM
You both fucking suck and should be ashamed of yourselves.  Do neither of you have a fucking conscience or morals?



Tell us what's really bothering you, Mike.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Perspective on March 04, 2020, 11:25:02 AM
>They can't stand elitists like bloomberg.

Wait a second, you don't consider Trump to be an elitist?

Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: micah on March 04, 2020, 02:35:24 PM
>They can't stand elitists like bloomberg.

Wait a second, you don't consider Trump to be an elitist?

They all are.  Every single one of them are rich, entitled, elitist.  That said, I should have said "political elitist." I believe a large part of Trump's base see him as a Washington outsider so, despite his wealth he gets a pass as someone who's standing up for the every-man against the political establishment.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: jkim on March 04, 2020, 03:52:50 PM
Micah, I would have really thought you and your family might benefit from some of Bernie's (and other's) proposals. Why are you against them?

https://www.bernietax.com/
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on March 05, 2020, 12:41:57 AM
Micah, I've never seen eye to eye with you on most things political so I won't even try.  Your opinion of things 'going pretty well' seems to be dipped in some Fox News nonsense.  The tax bullshit he got passed is only going to come back to bite us.  And shit, the changes to the W4 totally fucked me on federal taxes this year.  Anyone in economics will tell you that we're headed for another recession.  How bad remains to be seen.  Foreign relations, despite his claims, seem to be terrible and trending down. Our only saving grace is that most countries see Trump as an ass-clown and don't link that to the rest of the country.  What always happens is that republicans get into office, offer some 'great' tax cut, fuck over the country, and then a democrat comes back into office and puts the big boy pants back on the country but then gets blamed for not giving everyone enough money.  And tell me how Trump is taking away big government, like you guys always seem to strive for?  Because it seems to have only gotten worse.

Jake, I assume you're either trolling again or maybe you lean farther right that I thought. 

I think both of your opinions of what the majority think are skewed.  Do I love any of the dems?  Not really.  I would have taken Warren.  Pete said some good things but lacked the experience.  Bernie is too extreme and I hope he doesn't win it.  I don't love Biden but I'll take it if that is the option.  Certainly ANY of them are better than Trump.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on March 05, 2020, 09:52:57 AM
Quote
Jake, I assume you're either trolling again or maybe you lean farther right that I thought.

this time I'm not trolling and I don't know what would make you think I was farther right. I am just looking at the situation pragmatically and similarly to how I began in this thread, I pointed out to shortcomings of the dems in these primaries. Their inability to field a candidate that can actually defeat Trump. Why is that leaning "farther right than you thought"?

And yes, as much as I wouldn't want to, in the event it would be Bernie v Trump, I would vote for Trump out of spite that the dems would go to such a left extreme.

But, as it will be Biden v Trump, I will probably vote for neither, but I will wait to make that decision after seeing the third party candidates. If it was Biden v Trump only, with no other more plausible options, I would vote Biden.

And I still think that Bloomberg was the dems best option - and the only option Trump feared. Too bad that didn't happen, because it would be one helluva campaign cycle. - again, this is just my pragmatic observation.

Dems blundered this opportunity to take over the white house. All they had to do is field a middle of the road candidate, with decent executive experience that can sway the disenfranchised republican vote. And then start building off of that. This comment doesn't make me lean dem or rep, it is just a realistic view of the times. I hope that the reps will be able to field someone like that in the next cycle. And until then, I am bracing myself for 4 more years of the D.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on March 05, 2020, 01:28:29 PM
You don't want to vote Dem in order to punish them for not fielding a good candidate... but you're fine voting Republican despite the fact that they nominated Trump? What you're really saying is you like Trump better than the Democrats, right?
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on March 05, 2020, 01:40:59 PM
You don't want to vote Dem in order to punish them for not fielding a good candidate... but you're fine voting Republican despite the fact that they nominated Trump? What you're really saying is you like Trump better than the Democrats, right?

not right. But if you want to bring it down to that level, I like Trump more than I like Bernie.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on March 05, 2020, 01:42:39 PM
All they had to do is field a middle of the road candidate, with decent executive experience that can sway the disenfranchised republican vote.

Isn't that Biden?
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on March 05, 2020, 03:13:54 PM
Biden is more middle of the road but he comes with a little baggage IMO.   I think Jake is looking for someone a little lesser-known, from the business sector.. someone Trump-like?  That's what I take away from his comments.

Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on March 05, 2020, 03:25:40 PM
Biden does have too much baggage and Trump and his cronies will eat him alive. Sleepy Joe, Creepy, Joe, the hole thing with his son - on and on - Trump will make his life hell. I feel for the guy. wouldn't want to be in his shoes.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on March 05, 2020, 06:08:38 PM
So what you're saying is "field a middle of the road candidate, with decent executive experience that can sway the disenfranchised republican vote" is not, in fact, all they had to do?
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on March 05, 2020, 06:10:52 PM
Hey Jake, why do you keep talking about what will happen in the election when the discussion comes to why you'd vote for one candidate or another?

Like, I'm really trying to understand your mindset but I just get a bunch of meta-commentary.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on March 05, 2020, 06:11:46 PM
So what you're saying is "field a middle of the road candidate, with decent executive experience that can sway the disenfranchised republican vote" is not, in fact, all they had to do?


I should have added: "and not Biden"
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on March 05, 2020, 06:16:02 PM
Looks like warren finally came to her senses. Her timing is not great because some of her supporters might vote for Bernie and not Biden
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on March 05, 2020, 06:19:46 PM
So what you're saying is "field a middle of the road candidate, with decent executive experience that can sway the disenfranchised republican vote" is not, in fact, all they had to do?


I should have added: "and not Biden"

I think you should have just said, "I'm a Republican so it will take a lot for me to vote in a way that hurts the Republican candidate."

When you're this picky about the democratic candidates, it's probably because you just don't like Democrats and you don't mind Trump. Which is fine of course, but if only one Democratic candidate would have been acceptable as an alternative to Trump then all this other rationalizing seems unnecessary.



Her timing is not great because some of her supporters might vote for Bernie and not Biden

Most of her supporters probably prefer Sanders regardless of when she bows out.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: KnuckleBuckett on March 06, 2020, 06:02:04 AM
Wow.  You guys jumping on Jake enough?  Jeez...
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on March 06, 2020, 10:38:12 AM
Wow.  You guys jumping on Jake enough?  Jeez...

I think that Charlie, and Mike, and Ober (to a lesser extent) are concentrating on the wrong thing here. They seem to be concentrating on how I will vote and why, where I am posting about how Trump can lose this election and the overall failure of the democratic party to make that happen. As an example:


Her timing is not great because some of her supporters might vote for Bernie and not Biden

Most of her supporters probably prefer Sanders regardless of when she bows out.

Charlie is missing the point here entirely. I said what I did because I know Bernie has no chance in the general election*, and with Warren leaving when she did, he now has a slight chance to become the candidate because there is a big likely hood that her followers will now vote for Bernie and not Biden.

*Plus fielding Bernie as the candidate equates [for about 50% of America] to fielding Trump to the other 50. Fielding Bernie would divide the electorate even more than it is right now. And you would have middle of the road people who are reluctant to vote for trump actually voting for him because they disagree with the other option so much more. I am one of those people, yes, that is true. I would bat an eye to Trump's shortcomings to punish the democrats for fielding such an extremely left candidate by granting Trump a historic landslide victory.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on March 06, 2020, 11:36:10 AM
2 wrongs don't make a right.  I still stand by the fact that any Democrat is better than Trump.  I do agree that most people will not vote for Bernie.  I don't love Biden as an option but I do think he can beat Trump.  Is he ideal?  No.  I think it's up in the air on whether those people will vote for Trump or some shitty 3rd party option.  I am totally fine if people go 3rd party instead of Trump.

I don't disagree with some of your points, Jake.  I disagree with the concept of 'punishing the Dems' by voting for Trump.  That's a really backwards idea to me.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on March 06, 2020, 12:07:44 PM
I don't disagree with some of your points, Jake.  I disagree with the concept of 'punishing the Dems' by voting for Trump.  That's a really backwards idea to me.

fair enough.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on March 06, 2020, 01:31:39 PM
Wow.  You guys jumping on Jake enough?  Jeez...

I think that Charlie, and Mike, and Ober (to a lesser extent) are concentrating on the wrong thing here. They seem to be concentrating on how I will vote and why, where I am posting about how Trump can lose this election and the overall failure of the democratic party to make that happen.

Well, I wouldn't say it's the "wrong" thing. You explained how you plan to vote and we're trying to understand why. You're ignoring those questions and talking about the election in general. Of course you don't have to answer but I don't see anything wrong with us asking and then looking for clarification when your response is unrelated.


Wow.  You guys jumping on Jake enough?  Jeez...

Not trying to jump on you, Knuck, but do you ever have conversations about politics with people you don't agree with? I don't do it a lot, but this seems relatively tame to me.

If anybody doesn't want to discuss their opinion they don't have to. No biggie. I specifically used the poll so that we could see what folks here were thinking without everybody having to open themselves up to the third degree. If Jake doesn't want to explain his voting preferences further he's free to stick to election analysis.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on March 06, 2020, 02:08:04 PM
Quote
I don't do it a lot, but this seems relatively tame to me.

Well, other than Mike's comments - but I think that was rather out of character. Or perhaps he is finally showing his true colors :p

Love to all
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on March 06, 2020, 02:56:12 PM
There is always reason to get heated about politics. The decisions made by those in government have huge effects on real people's lives. Bad or misguided decisions lead to death, pain, heartache, misery, and more for potentially millions of people.

Even in cases where it seems clear that decisions are being made that directly hurt people, there are always those who see it differently, sometimes due to a different understanding of the facts, or different moral priorities, or whatever. In those cases I get the anger and understand that it takes real restraint to not lash out.

Seems like it's your responsibility to understand that and wade through any harsh rhetoric to listen to the point being made as much as it is his to make his comments gentler to avoid offending you.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on March 06, 2020, 03:45:30 PM
Quote
I don't do it a lot, but this seems relatively tame to me.

Well, other than Mike's comments - but I think that was rather out of character. Or perhaps he is finally showing his true colors :p

Love to all
You both fucking suck and should be ashamed of yourselves.  Do neither of you have a fucking conscience or morals?



Tell us what's really bothering you, Mike.

So, I decided to think on this for a couple of days before responding.  First, I am recovering from a cold so much chill level is near zero.  But, honestly that isn't what is bothering me, it just makes it harder to refrain.

I've got friends, families, and acquaintances that are being harmed by Trump's policies and rhetoric and those of his administration.  These people include gay, trans, black, and a few other vulnerable groups.  I also see Trump actively attacking my country and its system of governance for his own gain or the gain of his cronies.  This is a country that I signed up to defend.  I see the people who should be holding him accountable abdicating that responsibility and instead encouraging and supporting that behavior.  All while pretending it is the other side's fault for calling him out.

And during all this, I see crowds of people cheering him on.  The prisoners are cheering their torturer.

That is why I'm pissed.  And I'm doubly pissed at those with the intelligence and understanding to see what is happening but turn a blind eye to it.

I can kinda of forgive those who voted for him in 2016.  Those who vote for him in 2020 are unforgivable.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on March 08, 2020, 12:46:53 AM
True.  All true.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on March 08, 2020, 09:42:39 AM
https://youtu.be/KQ-YjGmpO4Q

This is the type of stuff I alluded to above

https://youtu.be/JKeG1iJNxGs    :D
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on March 08, 2020, 01:48:28 PM
Haha... you almost got me Jake! I was just about to dive into a conversation and ask about how that type of stuff would affect your preference for President, especially given the order of magnitude worse behavior of the other major nominee. But then I realized, that's not about your preference at all!

You're just commenting on how other people in the electorate will take a look at Biden's creepy behavior and think to themselves, this guy should not be President. They will consider this type of creepy behavior disqualifying and just won't vote for the Democratic candidate. What a fail by the Democrats to nominate somebody who acts creepy around women and young girls! If only they had nominated somebody moderate that can win over the centrist vote but also not creepy, then they'd have a chance to defeat Trump*!


* As in Trump, the guy with multiple rape accusations against him, multiple documented instances of infidelity, with even more stories of creepier creepiness (see Miss USA dressing room), and who literally said in audio for everybody to hear that when you're famous you can go up to women and "grab them by the pussy". Yep, no way that voters leaning Trump will go over to someone who touches a girl's arm and whispers in her ear!
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on March 11, 2020, 02:06:04 PM
I thought that Sanders will bow out today - he didn't - but I think he was hinting at it. I also think he had a pretty great speech today, and by pressing Biden on the issues that are important to the far left, he is starting to push his voters towards Biden. He essentially gave him a cheat sheet. Overall, good communication.

Biden also had some good remarks yesterday. I liked his demeanor and message on the virus outbreak. I think that is his shot to show the public how he would deal with a crisis that Trump is obviously bungling. Tremendously bungling. ;)
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on March 11, 2020, 02:13:25 PM
My son asked me if Obama could be Biden's VP - I wasn't sure, but I don't see why not. That would be a twist
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on March 11, 2020, 02:42:53 PM
My son asked me if Obama could be Biden's VP - I wasn't sure, but I don't see why not. That would be a twist
Not a legal / constitutional scholar by any means but I don't think Obama could.  He is no longer eligible to hold the office of President since he hit the term limit.  And since the whole point of the VP is to be the backup it would defeat the purpose.


I would be crying shenanigans if this was attempted.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on March 11, 2020, 04:47:19 PM
I think the text of the amendment is that they can't be elected President, so Obama would be allowed to run as VP and finish out the term if Biden died or resigned.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on March 11, 2020, 08:29:30 PM
Clearly the intent is to limit the how long a single person can serve as president.  We are a common law country so even if the exact text does forbid it I would still think it'd get squashed by the courts.  But who knows, maybe we'd get caught up in the various interpretations like some other issues.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on March 12, 2020, 08:47:19 AM
While I think that would be awesome, that would also be terrible.  That's a slippery slope into what is happening in Russia.

On another note - Trump's speech last night was yet again packed with misinformation and lies.  Insurances companies are already coming out and saying that what he said about some of the coverage is just wrong.  And can someone please get that man a tissue?  The constant sniffling he does makes him sound like he should be in the ICU.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: micah on March 12, 2020, 11:04:47 PM
I started watching a live stream of Bernie talking about the current pandemic and was really liking what he had to say.... until he got about 4 minutes in and just started trash talking the current administration as incompetent.  I'm not usually one to shout "this is not a time to be partisan" but, seriously, this is not a time to make things political. I get that there are different ideas for the role of government and how to handle the situation... but seriously, give your advice, share your ideas, remind people of their duty in our caring society then shut up. 
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on March 12, 2020, 11:09:09 PM
Trump has been making this political since day one and continues to do so.  So, why should anyone give him a break?

The the current administrations response has been incompetent.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: micah on March 12, 2020, 11:13:29 PM
Trump has been making this political since day one and continues to do so.  So, why should anyone give him a break?

The the current administrations response has been incompetent.

Not to sound like Jake to defer your point... but I'm not defending trump here or saying he needs to be cut some special slack.  Just saying that its a major turn off when any political figure makes a national crisis be about themselves and their campaign.  Do I find it more distasteful when its a politician I don't really like anyway, sure i guess honestly thats true... but really the point works for both parties and all candidates and incumbents. Trump included.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on March 12, 2020, 11:42:26 PM
Yet, you are complaining about one side doing it.  So, while the point may be true for both sides we tend to only call out the other side.

In a greater sense, when was the last national crisis that the administration in place wasn't criticized as it was happening?  9/11 maybe, and then not for even that long.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on March 12, 2020, 11:51:04 PM
I think Trump's message on this whole ordeal is garbage. He has been sending wrong signals from day one. Only yesterday did he get it somewhat right - but the fucking guy said that people are fighting with the virus even when going to work. Jesus Christ, at least half of the population is riding your every word - you need to choose them carefully.

With that said, and even though he did make some gaffs, yesterday's speech was the first time he sounded really presidential to me - like what I would like him to sound like most of the time.

I haven't heard the Bernie thing so can't comment.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on March 12, 2020, 11:57:47 PM
I thought the speech was a serious letdown.  He spent half the time saying how good the economy was, the travel ban (according to several articles I read) will amount to no real additional safety, and he lied about several things, including the idea that insurance companies would cover treatment.  He also SOUNDS like he has it.  Constant sniffling, fumbling over his words.  If that's what you want him to sound like I feel bad for you.  I was not proud at any moment of that speech for him to be our president.  What a joke.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on March 13, 2020, 03:41:49 PM
I will defer to an actual legal scholar and say that I guess I'm wrong on the whole VP path to more terms.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TWihXElw_zg
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on March 17, 2020, 12:25:11 AM
So, apparently Mr "I don't take any responsibility" because "I don't anything about it" actually talked about cutting them in 2018: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/coronavirus-video-trump-pandemic-team-cut-2018-a9405191.html
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on April 01, 2020, 10:33:06 AM
So what do you guys think is going to happen with the election?
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on April 01, 2020, 11:15:12 AM
In what regards?  I'm registered to vote my mail.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on April 01, 2020, 11:32:14 AM
In what regards?  I'm registered to vote my mail.
+1
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on April 02, 2020, 01:29:46 AM
I mean... a lot of possible answers there.

Do we have one? Probably. Hopefully vote by mail is set up in most places before then but I'm not optimistic.
Will it be controversial? Probably, but lately they all are and Trump called the results of the last one into question even though he won so it doesn't take much.
Will it actually be controversial? Maybe, but my guess is that there will be a lot of complaints, some of those will be valid, but the overall sentiment will be that it is a legitimate election.

Who will win? Not sure... I think it was pretty close to 50-50 before corona time. The tanking of the economy will hurt him so I'm leaning closer to 60-40 Biden right now. No matter what I'll be surprised if it's anything other than a close contest. Too many people locked into their beliefs that won't even be swayed by an historic pandemic and recession.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: micah on April 02, 2020, 11:50:10 AM
I honestly don't think the tanking economy will hurt him.  I know that sounds counter-intuative BUT, the economy was gangbusters before this and everyone knows that it was the virus mitigation that caused the crash.  I think his supporters will support him no matter what, and a lot of people will assume that, because of his previous "success" he would be the best person to guide the inevitable (albeit eventual) return to normalcy.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on April 03, 2020, 08:32:59 PM
Well, whatever happens, I hope that the democratic process prevails. I read that the president of Hungary enacted some law that gives him pretty much unlimited power. I bet a lot of that type of shit will happen around the world. There are always people waiting to take advantage on these types of situations to garner power.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on April 04, 2020, 12:22:41 AM
At least from a legal perspective we have to have an election.  Congress and the President have fixed terms that expire on particular days.  And while the president has the electoral college that does the actual voting it isn't the same with congress.

What thing that made me glad to see is that people are wising up to just how crappy of a job the president is doing with this response.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on April 04, 2020, 11:36:50 AM
Some people are seeing it but there are others that think he's doing a fine job.  I know there are people that will totally be on board with his 'I am choosing not to wear a mask.  It's just a recommendation.' bullshit that he spouted yesterday.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on April 07, 2020, 12:26:43 PM
wisconsin's governor cancelled the primary election, but that was quickly overruled by the courts and the primaries are happening today. 
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on April 07, 2020, 01:11:57 PM
Courts tried to do that here too.  It got overruled by the state doctor (whatever that title is).  That all happened less than 12 hours prior to polls opening.  I'm shocked they are moving forward.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: kermi3 on April 08, 2020, 08:52:50 AM
So fucked up in Wisconsin.  Literally preventing people from voting.  This (and climate change denial) are the two things that I respect the least about the republican party right now - actively trying to keep people from voting.  It's fucked up.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on April 08, 2020, 09:54:08 AM
Could not agree more, kermi.  I do not understand the logic with this.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on April 08, 2020, 09:55:26 AM
So fucked up in Wisconsin.  Literally preventing people from voting.  This (and climate change denial) are the two things that I respect the least about the republican party right now - actively trying to keep people from voting.  It's fucked up.

you know that Wisconsin's governor is a democrat, right?
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: jkim on April 08, 2020, 12:12:07 PM
Well Bernie's out.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on April 08, 2020, 01:23:43 PM
Saw that.  Surprised he took so long to call it.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on April 08, 2020, 02:02:31 PM
So, no matter what we are going to have a (probably) rapist in the office for another 4 years.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on April 08, 2020, 02:32:11 PM
Uhhh... I'm not aware of Biden being a rapist.  Being a little too 'touchy' maybe.  Nothing on Trump's level.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on April 08, 2020, 02:55:54 PM
Uhhh... I'm not aware of Biden being a rapist.  Being a little too 'touchy' maybe.  Nothing on Trump's level.

it's so weird I wanted to post a couple links to articales about it, but when you google it, only right wing media is posting about it and all left wing media is quiet...interesting. I don't want to link FOX because you will not believe it
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on April 08, 2020, 02:57:57 PM
something from vox

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/27/21195935/joe-biden-sexual-assault-allegation

Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on April 08, 2020, 03:41:49 PM
That's the first I had seen any detail.  The only thing I'd heard about is that he rested his hand on someone's back too long or kissed someone on the cheek/neck that felt in appropriate.  Biden wasn't my first choice and still isn't but I'll still take him over Trump.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on April 08, 2020, 04:19:26 PM
The Bernie-bros were jumping all over the news story which of course hits the reddit /all a lot.  And there has been a lot of backlash against quite a few of the #metoo advocates who have silent purged their social media of comments made during previous allegations against Republicans.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on April 08, 2020, 04:54:38 PM
you know that Wisconsin's governor is a democrat, right?

I believe it was the Republicans in Wisconsin and conservative SCOTUS justices that did forced that. And of course Trump tweeted today (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1247861952736526336) basically saying that Republicans should try to prevent vote-by-mail because it's bad for their electoral chances.  :wtf:
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on April 08, 2020, 04:57:49 PM
As for Biden, I've never been a fan and I'm not happy that he's going to be the nominee. This assault allegation is important and should not be ignored.

And honestly it's disgusting that these two guys are effectively our only choices to be President.


That said, Biden's alleged behavior pales in comparison to Trump's alleged behavior and Trump's actual behavior while in office. There's really no choice to be made.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on April 08, 2020, 05:17:10 PM
That said, Biden's alleged behavior pales in comparison to Trump's alleged behavior and Trump's actual behavior while in office. There's really no choice to be made.
I feel disgusted that I have to agree with you.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on April 08, 2020, 05:47:15 PM
That's the first I had seen any detail.  The only thing I'd heard about is that he rested his hand on someone's back too long or kissed someone on the cheek/neck that felt in appropriate.  Biden wasn't my first choice and still isn't but I'll still take him over Trump.

I tell you what - there is something to be said about the "left wing media" not posting much about it - don't you agree? Google "Biden sexual assault" and see what hits you DON'T get. do the same with Trump's name.

anyway...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/28/joe-biden-sexual-assault-allegations-why-has-media-ignored-claims

Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on April 08, 2020, 05:51:53 PM
And there has been a lot of backlash against quite a few of the #metoo advocates who have silent purged their social media of comments made during previous allegations against Republicans.

The hypocrisy is rampant. Alyssa Milano is getting a lot of grief: https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/alyssa-milano-explains-silence-joe-biden-sexual-assault-allegation

I forgive her because she is so hot. ;)
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on April 08, 2020, 08:26:44 PM

And honestly it's disgusting that these two guys are effectively our only choices to be President.


Vermin Supreme is not a rapist https://verminsupreme2020.com/
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on April 09, 2020, 03:13:34 AM
I tell you what - there is something to be said about the "left wing media" not posting much about it - don't you agree?

Umm... no. I can't say that I would agree. (Although to be fair I don't pay attention to "left wing media" so who knows or cares what they're saying.)

As far as the mainstream media goes, though, I don't really think there's much to be said there. First, Trump's had a ton more allegations and of course he's president now, so a google search right now is a very bad way to test this.

Also, allegations get mainstream media play when they are well-documented and well-supported or there are many of them. If this is not getting a lot of play, part of it could be because there just isn't enough evidence/corroboration yet. (That doesn't mean it isn't serious or it didn't happen, but mainstream media outlets for the most part don't play up stories like this unless they are pretty solid, at least compared to .)

And finally, I don't remember much mainstream media coverage of Trump's assault allegations during the 2016 primary. The "grab them by the pussy" audio got a lot of play, but that was also during the general election campaign and the actual assault allegations weren't mentioned much. (Especially compared to, say, her emails.)

So is there some left-wing hypocrisy here? Probably. There almost always is. Is there a mainstream media bias? I don't see any evidence of that.


And honestly... what's the relevance to the election? If someone is trying to decide between Trump and Biden, are they really going to choose Trump because of a sexual assault allegation against Biden? Really? Who would do that?
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on April 09, 2020, 12:08:34 PM
you know that Wisconsin's governor is a democrat, right?

I believe it was the Republicans in Wisconsin and conservative SCOTUS justices that did forced that. And of course Trump tweeted today (https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1247861952736526336) basically saying that Republicans should try to prevent vote-by-mail because it's bad for their electoral chances.  :wtf:
Holy shit that's so blatant!  WOW.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on April 13, 2020, 12:01:04 AM
Maybe we should let Trump try to cancel the election:

https://youtu.be/yQLbNekBU1A
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on June 18, 2020, 11:41:00 PM
so which rapist will you be voting for?
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on June 19, 2020, 12:57:49 AM
Current poll results are:

Biden: 5
Trump: 2
Other/Didn't Vote: 2


As much as I'm not a fan of Biden, it's not even a difficult decision.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: hans on June 19, 2020, 10:04:44 AM
As much as I'm not a fan of Biden, it's not even a difficult decision.

Ditto.

I hate that it seems it keeps coming down to voting against a candidate(s) rather than for one you believe in lately.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: hans on June 19, 2020, 10:07:09 AM
It's also likely this will be my first year to vote by mail or do early voting.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on June 19, 2020, 10:17:37 AM
It's also likely this will be my first year to vote by mail
Welcome brother!

I've gotten a mail-in ballot for awhile now.  I think I rarely actually mail it in and instead just drop it off but it saves so much time.  Heck, during the primary they had a drive through line going at my local polling place for people dropping them off.

As much as I'm not a fan of Biden, it's not even a difficult decision.

Ditto.

I hate that it seems it keeps coming down to voting against a candidate(s) rather than for one you believe in lately.
It has been that way for awhile.  It is a mathematical inevitability with first-past-the-post voting.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on July 08, 2020, 12:43:44 AM
this is a pretty excellent speech

https://youtu.be/mXD4zPY4Ai0
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on July 08, 2020, 01:19:32 AM
I really hope you're trolling now.  I refuse to watch that shit and I've heard enough about that speech to know that it's chocked full of lies and divisiveness.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on July 08, 2020, 01:37:02 AM
I really hope you're trolling now.  I refuse to watch that shit and I've heard enough about that speech to know that it's chocked full of lies and divisiveness.

I'm not trolling. And you heard that where, on CNN or MSNBC? Give it a shot, Ben, and make your own opinion
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on July 08, 2020, 09:20:24 AM
He is racist.  He is delusional.  He is dangerous.  He doesn't give a shit about the real problems happening in this country.  I don't need to listen to CNN or MSNBC to form those opinions.  I have watched him spew vitriol from many a podium directly, without commentary, and that's more than enough for me to form an opinion.  My OWN opinion.  The man is a monster.  A liar.  A bigot.  There's nothing in that speech that could change that opinion.

I tried to watch his speech at the Space X launch.  I have tried to see what people see in him.  I have really made an attempt to give him any respect.  He has not earned it.  Period.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on July 24, 2020, 12:56:19 PM
we need to amend the poll, because I'm voting for Jo

https://jo20.com/
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: jkim on July 24, 2020, 02:44:54 PM
we need to amend the poll, because I'm voting for Jo

https://jo20.com/
I suddenly turned Germanic pronouncing her name in my head and went for "Yo Yorgensen"
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on July 24, 2020, 06:38:23 PM
we need to amend the poll, because I'm voting for Jo

https://jo20.com/

Ask and you shall receive.

Previous results attached here...
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: micah on July 26, 2020, 12:52:06 PM
I don't want Biden, but honestly, if she's a legit candidate and ends up on my ballet, I might vote Libertarian for the first time in my life. Living in CT my vote is pretty much moot anyway, but my conscious would be cleaner.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on July 26, 2020, 03:36:23 PM
Biden's not my ideal candidate either, but I'm not going to throw away my vote.  And yes, I hate saying that and I wish the other parties had a chance... but they don't.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: hans on July 26, 2020, 06:54:14 PM
We're adding Kanye soon right?
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on July 27, 2020, 01:28:14 PM
God her website is terrible!  I can't open multiple tabs from the issue page because of how they designed it.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on July 27, 2020, 04:54:44 PM
"Bring home all the troops and stop fighting foreign wars."  LOLOLOLOLOL god this woman is hilarous.

Honestly, there's no depth to any of the issues on her site.  She also hasn't been in any debates.  If you're basing your vote on that website, god help you.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: micah on July 27, 2020, 07:12:31 PM
"Bring home all the troops and stop fighting foreign wars."  LOLOLOLOLOL god this woman is hilarous.

Honestly, there's no depth to any of the issues on her site.  She also hasn't been in any debates.  If you're basing your vote on that website, god help you.

well thats just standard libertarian idealogy. It wouldn't happen because, you know, congress.  Its one of the few libertarian stances I'm not cool with but it's not like it would be the end of the world if we maintained our military power for national defense against foreign enemies and just stayed out of everyone else's business.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on July 27, 2020, 07:41:04 PM
Honestly
Quote
“As President, I will use my Constitutional authority to block any new borrowing. I will veto any spending bill that would lead to a deficit, and veto any debt ceiling increase.  I will give every Cabinet secretary a specific spending reduction target to meet and hold them accountable.  There is simply no excuse for sticking our children and grandchildren with the bill for these bipartisan bloated budgets.”
Also shows a lack of understanding of reality.  You can't just shut it off at this point.  I'd much rather see a path towards that goal knowing that no president is going to get there on their own.

Also, it reeks of Trumps "get rid of two for every regulation that is added".  It might sound good on the surface but it just doesn't work.


Also
Quote
“The freedom to trade and travel are fundamental to human liberty. As American citizens, we should be free to travel anywhere we choose, and to buy and sell anywhere in the world. As President, I will use my Constitutional authority to eliminate trade barriers & tariffs, and work to repeal arbitrary quotas on the number of people who can legally enter the United States to work, visit, or reside. “
Really means "We want the ability to exploit cheap labor overseas without any cost to us".
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on July 28, 2020, 11:38:25 AM
Yes, the platform is probably pretty bad (I just read all your comments, not their website), but if you're not in a swing state then I don't have a problem voting third party even for someone who you think would be a bad President. Our system the way it is set up will always have two dominant parties but protest votes (in non-swing states) could potentially shake things up a smidge.

Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on August 08, 2020, 11:35:00 PM
https://youtu.be/aA-GoeFGyIc

What do you think of these accusations?

https://youtu.be/ADDrSvNyqEY
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on August 09, 2020, 12:26:19 AM
What do you think of these accusations?

As much as I'm not a fan of Biden, it's not even a difficult decision.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on August 11, 2020, 05:59:46 PM
so what do you think of Biden's choice for a running mate? will it help or hurt him?
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on August 11, 2020, 06:18:46 PM
Neither. VP picks rarely move the needle much and this was a relatively bland pick anyway. I liked Harris more than most of the potential candidates so I'm fine with it. I guess the biggest news is that it gives her a leg up for 2024 or 2028.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on August 12, 2020, 11:16:49 AM
I'm ok with it.  I don't think it helps or hurts much.  I wish he had picked Duckworth, personally.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on August 18, 2020, 01:24:31 AM
Gutsy! Good for her and her message is spot on

https://youtu.be/VoEuCOfjTYQ
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Perspective on August 18, 2020, 08:21:08 AM
I think she does a great job of showing the problems Baltimore has, but she doesn't say anything about how she'd make it better... what is her platform? Why will voting for her change anything?
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on August 18, 2020, 11:34:09 AM
She doesn't say what she would do and twists the 'defund the police' idea into something it isn't.  I guess my biggest problem is that corrupt people run things in both parties.  Putting a republican in control doesn't automatically make things better.  All she said was 'they don't care about black people and they will defund the police and they have been in power too long'.  She didn't say what policies are failing or what they're doing wrong.  That's what I hate about these broad strokes of 'the democrats failed us'.  HOW!??  You can't just say shit and not provide concrete evidence or details.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on August 18, 2020, 05:53:07 PM
I mean... I'm not totally against the idea of "party X failed us over and over, let's try something new". It's a reasonable take even if it wouldn't be the first thing I look at.

But anybody who thinks in those terms would certainly never vote Republican for President. It's been like 30 years of Republican presidents leaving the country (and especially the economy) in shambles and Democratic presidents presiding over recoveries.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: micah on August 18, 2020, 11:59:42 PM
I mean... I'm not totally against the idea of "party X failed us over and over, let's try something new". It's a reasonable take even if it wouldn't be the first thing I look at.

But anybody who thinks in those terms would certainly never vote Republican for President. It's been like 30 years of Republican presidents leaving the country (and especially the economy) in shambles and Democratic presidents presiding over recoveries.

...but even that is a matter of (biased) opinion.  I think the argument this politician is referring to is that, while to your point the country has had significant setbacks under republican leadership, the cities (and states) lead largely or wholly by democrats have certainly fared worse, especially in economically and racially diverse communities. The democrat's compassionate big ideas seem like, at best, pandering empty promises and, at worst, a systematic and systemic model of oppression that keeps democrats in power and undermines the underclass.  Welfare has not helped anyone out of poverty, massive education spending has not increased graduation rates in "under served" areas despite huge per-student budgets, gun control has not stopped gun violence and the list goes on.

of course, this goes both ways - the war on drugs is similarly a failing of minority communities lead largely by conservatives but with massive buy-in from most democratic politicians.  Just look at Biden's record as a senator for 35+ years and Kamala Harris' track record on criminal justice as an attorney general.  Where was their progressive sense of liberal compassion during all that time?
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Perspective on August 19, 2020, 08:27:36 AM
> pandering empty promises

I thought that was the job description for "politician" :D
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on August 19, 2020, 01:04:11 PM
...but even that is a matter of (biased) opinion. 

It's not that hard to come up with objective measures to assess rather than refer to it as opinion. If anybody has some objective measures that make sense they'd like to propose we can check them so that we aren't being so biased.


the cities (and states) lead largely or wholly by democrats have certainly fared worse

Have they? States-wise, I don't know if I buy this. I'm curious where you're coming from there.

As for cities, it's more plausible but I wonder how you think they have faired worse. Crime is way down, cities are generally still thriving and as far as I know track the overall economy. Things aren't perfect but I can't think of what types of things are specifically worse in cities.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: micah on August 19, 2020, 02:43:41 PM
I was answering in the context of the video where she is specifically speaking about the failure of democrats to "fix" the problems in african american communities.  Crime is down, sure nationally...but tell that to Baltimore or Chicago.  Cities as a whole may track with the GDP but the poverty rate among blacks remains in the 25% to 28% range.  To her point, Democrats are supposed to be the party that cares about black people, but these problems are consistently more prevalent and in most cases much worse in cities that have been democrat controlled for decades.


Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on August 19, 2020, 04:03:24 PM
Well either you're talking about local politics, which I don't really have a problem with saying local politicians in those cities aren't doing a good job (but I would prefer specifics rather than generalizations) or you're talking about more national and state level politics where which party's agenda has a greater affect on their livelihoods is up for debate.

Also.. crime is down nationally, and in most democratically controlled cities. I did a quick search and it's hard to find clear stats but other than a dramatic rise in Baltimore recently and a spike in Chicago a couple years back everything I found indicated that crime is going down even in largely "blue" places. I think you're gonna have to find some solid evidence if you want us to believe these cities have "certainly" fared worse.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: hans on August 20, 2020, 01:52:13 PM
"Controlled" is also a generic term too. I don't know what the percentage is for the states in question but it might be true that there isn't a veto proof majority to just pass whatever they want. So while a state (or even at federal level as we see now) can be "controlled" by one party or the other, it's certainly possible for the other one to stall whatever agenda there is.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on August 23, 2020, 10:10:52 AM
I wonder why this song is not trending ;)

https://youtu.be/I6FmwBPDT-w
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on August 24, 2020, 05:13:33 PM
It's not trending because there are so many issues with a lot of what he said. 
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on August 24, 2020, 07:07:18 PM
It looks dumb and I was going to ignore it but since you replied ober I watched a minute and yes it was dumb.

It's taking the most extreme voices tangentially related to an ideology, exaggerating and misconstruing their beliefs, then applying those to the entire group (except the people they know, who of course don't count).
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on August 24, 2020, 07:36:21 PM
He touched on everything from homophobia to abortion and put out invalid arguments for pretty much all of it.  It's people like this that make me cringe because people will listen to this and take something away from it.  People can sing about getting pussy or makin dat money or whatever all day long.  But don't sing about things that affect other people's lives unless you truly understand the issues.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on September 27, 2020, 09:43:53 PM
https://twitter.com/Jorgensen4POTUS/status/1309163195937042437?s=20

Burn
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on September 28, 2020, 12:30:03 AM
Burn?  He hasn't been the president.  How many other politicians have been in office for 30+ years that you could say the same thing about?  That's just a cheap shot.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on September 29, 2020, 11:30:36 PM
what a shit show - holy cow.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on September 30, 2020, 12:31:27 AM
It frankly wasn't a great look for either of them but Trump looked like a whiny baby that could not shutup.  Killed me when Biden literally told him to shut up lol!
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Threadkiller on September 30, 2020, 07:41:17 AM
 :suicide:
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: micah on September 30, 2020, 12:30:04 PM
It frankly wasn't a great look for either of them but Trump looked like a whiny baby that could not shutup.  Killed me when Biden literally told him to shut up lol!

not disagreeing at all about your assessment.  But I don't get why all the people complaining about how "unpresidential" trump is are the people loving the fact that Biden told him to "shut up, man." You really can't get any more disrespectful than that.  And for what its worth, Biden was in the middle of not answering a question when that happened.  All trump did was egg him on, as the moderator was doing, to actually address the question instead of using the time to talk about something else.  Trump might be a fucktard, but if Biden wins, I can't wait for the next four years to hear all the shit that comes out of his mouth...if his handlers ever let him talk
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: jkim on September 30, 2020, 01:56:22 PM
And if Trump wins we're guaranteed more shit out of his mouth!
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: micah on September 30, 2020, 06:20:57 PM
And if Trump wins we're guaranteed more shit out of his mouth!

and his twitter account
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on October 01, 2020, 10:31:40 AM
No, I'm sorry.  I don't agree with you Micah.  Trump was being a troll all fucking night and he could not stop talking over Biden.  I expect them to talk each other down to some degree but that was insane.  I don't see Biden saying 'shut up' as being unpresidential.  Frankly it was probably one of the nicer things he could have said and even the way he said it wasn't mean.  He had asked repeatedly before that (as had the moderator) for him to let him talk uninterrupted.  Trump acted like a child.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on October 02, 2020, 08:00:57 AM
Welp.  It was bound to happen sooner or later.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Perspective on October 02, 2020, 08:26:56 AM
...and the plot thickens.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: hans on October 02, 2020, 12:40:04 PM
I hate to admit it but I do question if this is even true or some other kind of misleading thing that'll get spun later on. Timing is suspect with all of the other press that's been going on lately and perhaps I watched Wag The Dog too many times but maybe the news should go back to covering tax returns, other covid infections/deaths, the dumpster fire debate etc and just wait for him to be totally fine in two weeks.

The problem with constantly misleading people is the lack of trust that generates. I don't know how anyone can trust anything that comes out of the White House that isn't backtracked, edited, or "misunderstood" later on.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on October 02, 2020, 01:32:21 PM
Welp.

this was my first thought.


My second thought is that among the many reasons I'm not a fan of Trump is that his administration is so incompetent. Even if he wanted to play down the severity of the disease for whatever reason, they still should have been able to protect him from it. And I do understand that a President and administration (especially in the midst of a campaign) have to do a lot of essential work that makes it tougher to keep him safe but still. If they were just reasonably competent I really thing he would've avoided getting infected.


My third thought is that clearly there's a cluster of infections that occurred around the administration, and the debate was a very dangerous event when it comes to likelihood of transmission (close, indoors, lots of talking, no masks, together for a long time). So what are the chances Trump or somebody there infected Biden? Can you imagine if Biden also gets it and he is incapacitated? It's one thing if the guy losing the election dies, there's not really a crisis. But if the guy winning the election dies then even though it's clear how to proceed it would be pretty crazy. (The RNC would presumably nominate Pence to replace Trump and the DNC would have to choose somebody, probably Harris.)
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on October 03, 2020, 12:52:16 AM
@tmj/hans - my whole family had that discussion at dinner.  He'll probably take this 'magical cocktail' and then tell everyone else to take it and he'll be the 'hero'.  I hope it's not the case.  I hope, in a sense, that it's real and he comes to his senses.

@charlie, I'm sure you've seen by now that Biden was negative.  But yeah, I'd assume if they both kicked it we'd see Pence vs. Harris and they'd have to pick new VPs.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on October 03, 2020, 01:18:28 AM
Biden being negative today doesn’t mean much. Looks like most of the White House cluster got it Saturday and tested positive yesterday and today. Biden (and others at the debate) would have gotten it Tuesday so we’d expect folks to start testing positive Sunday or Monday.

And of course sometimes people don’t see symptoms or test positive for a good week or almost two so we won’t be sure for awhile.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on October 07, 2020, 09:10:14 PM
So looks like Biden probably didn't get it... but a whole bunch of people in and around the White House did. :(
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on October 19, 2020, 10:42:13 AM
Observation: Texas is limiting ballot drops to one per county.  Here in Sacramento county there are over 50 with my unincorporated town having 3 and two of them are in grocery stores.  Heck, even the CA GOP is getting in with some illegally placed drop boxes.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: jkim on October 19, 2020, 12:51:54 PM
I sent mine through the mail last month and it recently updated to being received (dated a couple weeks ago). I was worried for a little bit but glad it made it.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on October 19, 2020, 02:15:42 PM
I just got my ballet today - I'll be driving mine directly to the board of elections building.  The board of elections in my county has been losing their mind because the printing company has been behind.  The news report included a photo of the flag pole outside their office which is flying a Trump flag.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on October 19, 2020, 06:20:44 PM
> The news report included a photo of the flag pole outside their office which is flying a Trump flag.
The election office or the printing company?  Cause both are terrifying but one is completely wrong.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on October 19, 2020, 09:29:31 PM
So this morning I made a donation to a campaign and have received no less than 4 emails asking for more.  FFS that doesn't encourage me to donate more or donate in the future.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on October 20, 2020, 08:18:26 AM
> The news report included a photo of the flag pole outside their office which is flying a Trump flag.
The election office or the printing company?  Cause both are terrifying but one is completely wrong.
The printing company.  Yes, both are terrifying.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: hans on October 20, 2020, 02:32:15 PM
My city had their stuff together and it was really quick to get through the line.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on October 20, 2020, 02:37:07 PM
I dropped off our ballots this morning at the elections board.  There were a LOT of people there for a Tuesday morning, in the rain, at 10AM.  Lots of people there to vote and a line just to do the drive-through dropoff.  I didn't get a sticker though :(
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on October 20, 2020, 03:47:47 PM
The state ballot included the sticker and I've heard some of the drop off points have additional ones.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: micah on October 20, 2020, 06:23:29 PM
Just curious, what is everyone's motivation for voting early? other than its seems to be the thing to do this year?  Is it really COVID related? I assume by now we're all used to going out in public and wearing masks and washing hands etc.  I don't really see voting as any more risky then going to the grocery store.

(i'm not anti-early-voting or trying to argue here...but I feel like its just as easy for me to stop by my polling place on election day, if not easier, than the whole mail in option)  :dunno:
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on October 20, 2020, 06:58:04 PM
I'm still voting on election day.

But I think that the motivation for most people is covid related
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on October 20, 2020, 07:09:17 PM
Pretty much every year I drop my ballot off on the day.  That is mostly laziness / conflicting demands on time though.  We'll see if it holds this year or not.  I really like the idea that once I'm done filling it out I can just take it to a drop box.  I'm certainly not going to mail it in.

I don't really see voting as any more risky then going to the grocery store.

Well, in some areas there have been 2-3+ hour waits.  So, I would say that is more risky than going to the grocery store just due to how long you are around other people.  Also, not everyone is going to get the time off on the day so early voting helps them.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: hans on October 20, 2020, 07:20:11 PM
I didn't feel like risking a ridiculously long line on election day in possibly inclement weather. My polling place used to literally be at the end of my street so it was easy to time the line by just looking outside. They moved it a few more blocks away recently so it's not as easy to see when it's busy. This year was the quickest and easiest I've ever voted and yet I still got to talk to more of the helpers. And it dumped 7" of snow today. I think I'll probably do early in-person voting from now on.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: hans on October 20, 2020, 07:22:53 PM
I look at it too as sort of helping out on voting day by not needing to go since I have the luxury of taking time off early to go. Less people on voting day will hopefully help things go smoother day of.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on October 21, 2020, 12:14:40 AM
I partially did mine because of Covid and partially because I like getting the ballot and making sure I've researched all the issues and candidates before I fill it out.  You can't exactly look something up last minute standing at the machine.  Granted, you should know all of the issues/candidates going in and I usually do by the time I get it but it's my last chance to double check.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: micah on October 21, 2020, 01:11:25 AM
Cool thanks for your answers.  I've never had to wait more than a couple minutes to vote and usually if there is a two minute wait, its inside anyway.  Around these parts you have to request a ballet and they mail it to you and then you have to mail it back... just seems like a hastel.  I guess if the traditional voting method had any level of difficulty or time suck, I'd probably mail it in too.  But also, when you vote in person you get a free sticker!

If they can ever figure out online voting in a reasonably secure way (like, block chain or level stuff) I'd be all in favor of doing that.  I mean, that's how I do my taxes  :dunno:
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on October 21, 2020, 09:25:34 AM
1) There will likely be less machines to vote at this time
2) There will likely be a cleaning procedure after each person votes
3) People will have to maintain distances

All that is gonna take time.  I agree mine used to be in and out.  I don't assume that's the case this time.  Also, most places will give you a sticker if you drop it off.  Some are even mailing you the sticker with the absentee ballot.

I'm all about voting online if they can figure that shit out.  Seems possible if they just get their act together.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on October 21, 2020, 12:57:35 PM
Quote
If they can ever figure out online voting in a reasonably secure way (like, block chain or level stuff) I'd be all in favor of doing that.  I mean, that's how I do my taxes  :dunno:
I'm all about voting online if they can figure that shit out.  Seems possible if they just get their act together.

(https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/voting_software.png)
 :D

Seriously though, I'd love online voting.  I think the biggest challenges are auditability and securing it against hostile users.  And the fact that each state is in control of their elections and you know Georgia, Alabama, and/or Florida would find a way to fuck it up.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on October 30, 2020, 01:20:44 PM
Here are three plausible scenarios:

My Best Guess

(https://www.270towin.com/map-images/g1leD)

A Trump Win

(https://www.270towin.com/map-images/WNGpW)

A Biden Landslide

(https://www.270towin.com/map-images/8p9AG)
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on October 30, 2020, 01:21:17 PM
Feels like Pennsylvania may not declare a winner on election night, but hopefully Florida's quick counting can make it moot and we can avoid all the potential shenanigans.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on October 30, 2020, 01:23:53 PM
I suspect Penn and potentially Ohio will flip blue.  Penn is usually blue though.  I will say, I'm getting worried.  There are still to many idiots choosing to vote for division and anarchy because they got a tax cut.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: hans on October 30, 2020, 03:47:00 PM
Sadly I think it'll come down to FL. Biden wins FL, he'll win the election. If not, then who knows.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on October 30, 2020, 06:45:58 PM
I suspect Penn and potentially Ohio will flip blue.  Penn is usually blue though.

The thing is that with the way they count ballots in Pennsylvania, even if Biden wins the state it will likely look like Trump is up big on election night. In the scenario where the election is close (like my Trump wins map above), Pennsylvania would essentially determine the winner and Trump would likely try to declare victory before they finish counting. I'm not looking forward to that drama. Will be much better if enough other states go Blue early on so that's not an issue.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on October 31, 2020, 11:41:28 PM
Apparently Trump supports are harassing the Biden campaign in Texas (include some vehicular violence) and Trump is ok with it.

This is one of the ways that Roman Republic fell
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on November 01, 2020, 02:36:13 PM
The Senate seems to be a much closer race. My guess:

(https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-images/MeEQPM)

If one of those close races go Republican instead of Democrat then we'll have to wait for January to find out who controls the Senate.

Who controls the Senate will have a huge effect on policy going forward.

If Biden wins and Democrats control 52+ senators, there's a decent chance that they end up killing the filibuster and pushing through significant legislation. Even if they don't kill the filibuster they would use reconciliation to do a couple important things.

If the Senate stays in Republican hands, the Supreme Court and federal courts will stay as they are now and essentially nothing will get passed. Biden will only have executive orders and federal agencies at his disposal.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: micah on November 01, 2020, 08:01:32 PM
I can't believe how unimpassioned I am about any of this.  Like, I'll probably vote and then just not watch any coverage on TV.  I am completely apathetic about the whole process this year.  Kinda the same as watching the NFL. I haven't watched a single game this season, don't even care if I don't check the score on Monday.  Doesn't seem worth the effort.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on November 02, 2020, 01:12:38 AM
I mean, if you're a Republican and also a reasonable person then yeah of course you're going to be apathetic about it because you're not going to be excited about voting for Trump and you're not going to be excited about voting for Biden.

And after years of excellence the Patriots are... not excellent, so football won't be super exciting.

And then every individual has different stuff going on in their lives that could affect this type of feeling.. Like what if you're in a new relationship that you're excited about for the first time in a decade... I dunno.. maybe that type of stuff could also affect how much energy one devotes to other things? Just a guess.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: jkim on November 02, 2020, 10:58:19 AM
Here are three plausible scenarios:

My Best Guess

(https://www.270towin.com/map-images/g1leD)

I'm very skeptical Biden will be able to win Florida. And also skeptical about PA. But I think there's a better chance of PA than FL.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: hans on November 02, 2020, 02:47:48 PM
I sort of wonder if TX might go blue this year. Seems like quite a bit of stuff going on down there at the moment.

This is going to be a crazy one tomorrow I think. Maybe I just never hear about it before, but this seems like the first election I know of that has the possibility of civil unrest. Businesses boarding up and my wife said the White House is putting up a fence, that's crazy.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 02, 2020, 04:23:19 PM
I think that it will be a landslide, I just don't know which way it will go.

Texas is interesting, that is for sure. There are many transplants in that state, especially near Dallas/Fort Worth area as well as Austin - I'm sure that has an impact. Over the weekend I read that there are more votes cast in Texas in early voting this year, than all the votes counted in 2016. that is insane! and good too.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on November 02, 2020, 04:43:32 PM
A Trump landslide would be almost impossible... The most bullish forecasts for him have Trump winning the popular vote as only a 3% chance. I guess with an electoral college advantage he might get a decent lead in electoral votes but it will be virtually impossible for him to get up above 330. Biden's median projected electoral vote count is more than that.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 02, 2020, 05:15:10 PM
A Trump landslide would be almost impossible... The most bullish forecasts for him have Trump winning the popular vote as only a 3% chance. I guess with an electoral college advantage he might get a decent lead in electoral votes but it will be virtually impossible for him to get up above 330. Biden's median projected electoral vote count is more than that.

do you still trust these forecasts? I think that 2016 showed how majority of them were wildly inaccurate. https://www.270towin.com/2016-election-forecast-predictions/
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on November 02, 2020, 05:24:58 PM
A Trump landslide would be almost impossible... The most bullish forecasts for him have Trump winning the popular vote as only a 3% chance. I guess with an electoral college advantage he might get a decent lead in electoral votes but it will be virtually impossible for him to get up above 330. Biden's median projected electoral vote count is more than that.

do you still trust these forecasts? I think that 2016 showed how majority of them were wildly inaccurate. https://www.270towin.com/2016-election-forecast-predictions/

Yeah absolutely I still trust them. You shouldn't take them as specific predictions (like the individual maps on that page you link to) but instead guides on what outcomes are likely and what are less likely. In 2016 my preferred site 538 actually showed what actually ended up happening as a real possibility (it wasn't their most likely outcome, though). Other sites (HuffPost and PEC) were really bad and shouldn't be trusted but that was known before the election too I think.

Hmm... now I'm curious what we were saying before the election on here last time.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on November 02, 2020, 05:32:01 PM
Ok here were two posts just before the 2016 election on what was expected:

Here's where the various models and markets have the race:

Electoral College
PEC (http://election.princeton.edu/): >99% Dem. (308 Clinton EV)
HuffPost (http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2016/forecast/president): 98% Dem. (323 Clinton EV)
PredictWise (http://predictwise.com/politics): 89% Dem. (323 Clinton EV)
DailyKos (http://elections.dailykos.com/app/elections/2016): 88% Dem. (323 Clinton EV)
NYT Upshot (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html): 84% Dem. (322 Clinton EV)
BettingOdds (https://electionbettingodds.com/): 82% Dem. (323 Clinton EV)
538 Polls-only (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast): 69% Dem. (322 Clinton EV)
538 Polls-plus (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#plus): 70% Dem. (322 Clinton EV)

If you look at individual swing states/districts, here are Clinton's probabilities according to those models:

Swing States
State|PrincetonEC|HuffPost|PredictWise|DailyKos|NYT Upshot|BettingOdds|538-Only|538-Plus
New Hampshire|79%|91%|88%|96%|76%|75%|69%|69%
Nevada|74%|83%|95%|56%|70%|83%|57%|59%
Florida|74%|89%|95%|56%|70%|67%|54%|53%
North Carolina|43%|88%|60%|59%|66%|55%|54%|53%
Ohio|37%|37%|31%|15%|45%|33%|36%|37%
Maine (CD 2)|71%|50%|47%|N/A|38%|N/A|49%|51%
Iowa|26%|14%|16%|3%|38%|17%|30%|31%
Nebraska (CD 2)|8%|50%|18%|N/A|22%|N/A|38%|37%

------------------------------------------------------------------------

For the senate, their estimates for a Democratic majority are:

Senate
PEC (http://election.princeton.edu/): 79% Dem. (50 Dem seats)
HuffPost (http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2016/forecast/senate): 91% Dem. (51 Dem seats)
PredictWise (http://predictwise.com/politics): 67% Dem. (50 Dem seats)
DailyKos (http://elections.dailykos.com/app/elections/2016): 66% Dem. (51 Dem seats)
NYT Upshot (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/senate-election-forecast.html): 55% Dem. (50 Dem seats)
BettingOdds (https://electionbettingodds.com/): 59% Dem. (50 Dem seats)
538 Polls-only (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/): 49% Dem. (50 Dem seats)
538 Polls-plus (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/#polls): 49% Dem. (49 Dem seats)

Competitive Senate Seats
State|PrincetonEC|HuffPost|PredictWise|DailyKos|NYT Upshot|BettingOdds|538-Only|538-Plus
Wisconsin|67%|98%|86%|74%|72%|82%|76%|81%
Pennsylvania|80%|97%|81%|83%|64%|78%|63%|61%
Nevada|80%|63%|74%|67%|61%|73%|53%|59%
New Hampshire|44%|79%|54%|52%|52%|58%|48%|52%
Indiana|50%|88%|30%|61%|42%|67%|36%|31%
Missouri|38%|41%|35%|39%|39%|62%|43%|42%
North Carolina|44%|12%|32%|35%|38%|64%|30%|26%

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Looks like Clinton is a favorite, although not as much as Obama was four years ago. Also looks like the Senate could go either way.
And Rob, I'd now put Trump's chance at becoming the President at around 25-30%. Crazy.

I think I'm currently at 20-25%, by the way. Way too high for my tastes.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: micah on November 02, 2020, 05:59:55 PM
I mean, if you're a Republican and also a reasonable person then yeah of course you're going to be apathetic about it because you're not going to be excited about voting for Trump and you're not going to be excited about voting for Biden.

And after years of excellence the Patriots are... not excellent, so football won't be super exciting.

And then every individual has different stuff going on in their lives that could affect this type of feeling.. Like what if you're in a new relationship that you're excited about for the first time in a decade... I dunno.. maybe that type of stuff could also affect how much energy one devotes to other things? Just a guess.

...why am I still paying for a therapist when I have you?  :lol:
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Threadkiller on November 03, 2020, 08:25:01 AM
Ok here were two posts just before the 2016 election on what was expected:

Here's where the various models and markets have the race:

Electoral College
PEC (http://election.princeton.edu/): >99% Dem. (308 Clinton EV)
HuffPost (http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2016/forecast/president): 98% Dem. (323 Clinton EV)
PredictWise (http://predictwise.com/politics): 89% Dem. (323 Clinton EV)
DailyKos (http://elections.dailykos.com/app/elections/2016): 88% Dem. (323 Clinton EV)
NYT Upshot (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html): 84% Dem. (322 Clinton EV)
BettingOdds (https://electionbettingodds.com/): 82% Dem. (323 Clinton EV)
538 Polls-only (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast): 69% Dem. (322 Clinton EV)
538 Polls-plus (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#plus): 70% Dem. (322 Clinton EV)

If you look at individual swing states/districts, here are Clinton's probabilities according to those models:

Swing States
State|PrincetonEC|HuffPost|PredictWise|DailyKos|NYT Upshot|BettingOdds|538-Only|538-Plus
New Hampshire|79%|91%|88%|96%|76%|75%|69%|69%
Nevada|74%|83%|95%|56%|70%|83%|57%|59%
Florida|74%|89%|95%|56%|70%|67%|54%|53%
North Carolina|43%|88%|60%|59%|66%|55%|54%|53%
Ohio|37%|37%|31%|15%|45%|33%|36%|37%
Maine (CD 2)|71%|50%|47%|N/A|38%|N/A|49%|51%
Iowa|26%|14%|16%|3%|38%|17%|30%|31%
Nebraska (CD 2)|8%|50%|18%|N/A|22%|N/A|38%|37%

------------------------------------------------------------------------

For the senate, their estimates for a Democratic majority are:

Senate
PEC (http://election.princeton.edu/): 79% Dem. (50 Dem seats)
HuffPost (http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2016/forecast/senate): 91% Dem. (51 Dem seats)
PredictWise (http://predictwise.com/politics): 67% Dem. (50 Dem seats)
DailyKos (http://elections.dailykos.com/app/elections/2016): 66% Dem. (51 Dem seats)
NYT Upshot (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/senate-election-forecast.html): 55% Dem. (50 Dem seats)
BettingOdds (https://electionbettingodds.com/): 59% Dem. (50 Dem seats)
538 Polls-only (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/): 49% Dem. (50 Dem seats)
538 Polls-plus (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/#polls): 49% Dem. (49 Dem seats)

Competitive Senate Seats
State|PrincetonEC|HuffPost|PredictWise|DailyKos|NYT Upshot|BettingOdds|538-Only|538-Plus
Wisconsin|67%|98%|86%|74%|72%|82%|76%|81%
Pennsylvania|80%|97%|81%|83%|64%|78%|63%|61%
Nevada|80%|63%|74%|67%|61%|73%|53%|59%
New Hampshire|44%|79%|54%|52%|52%|58%|48%|52%
Indiana|50%|88%|30%|61%|42%|67%|36%|31%
Missouri|38%|41%|35%|39%|39%|62%|43%|42%
North Carolina|44%|12%|32%|35%|38%|64%|30%|26%

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Looks like Clinton is a favorite, although not as much as Obama was four years ago. Also looks like the Senate could go either way.
And Rob, I'd now put Trump's chance at becoming the President at around 25-30%. Crazy.

I think I'm currently at 20-25%, by the way. Way too high for my tastes.

Wow, that thread aged badly...
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on November 03, 2020, 10:57:04 AM
Lol these are the posts that haunt me still...

But don't worry, there's a better chance of RobR coming back and gracing us with his presence than Donald Trump winning the presidency.
I really doubt Trump gets the Republican nomination, there are lots of reasons to think he won't even though he appears to be a front runner now. And if somehow he does, there's really no way he actually wins the Presidency. He is really popular with a smaller group of people and really unpopular with a much larger group.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on November 03, 2020, 11:06:23 AM
Oh, back when we were naive and believed in the reasonableness of people.  Those halcyon days where mocking a handicap reporter would be enough of a disqualifier and the GOP senators weren't complete bootlickers.

/sigh
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 03, 2020, 11:13:45 AM
Personally, I think that with either Bernie or Trump as the president, the country would spin out of control. The ideological divisions are two deep and both of them come from the extremes of their party and as such would never garnish ANY support or respect from the other side and these divisions could lead us into a dark future.

well, damn
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 03, 2020, 11:25:49 AM
looking back on that thread, I see how my views on certain key topics evolved in the past 4 years - and I have to do some retrospection as to why.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: hans on November 03, 2020, 12:43:40 PM
Personally, I think that with either Bernie or Trump as the president, the country would spin out of control. The ideological divisions are two deep and both of them come from the extremes of their party and as such would never garnish ANY support or respect from the other side and these divisions could lead us into a dark future.

well, damn

Nailed that one.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: hans on November 03, 2020, 12:44:38 PM
Whatcha got for the next four years?
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on November 03, 2020, 12:50:44 PM
Trump reverses the direction of spin, it continues to be a crazy and chaotic time but in the end he's undone everything and we are back to where we were in 2016?
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 03, 2020, 03:03:17 PM
Voted - it was virtually empty, there were 3 other people including my wife.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on November 03, 2020, 06:05:11 PM
And with the first county in New Hampspire going to Trump (16-10) he has declared victory over the entire election




/s (I hope)
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: hans on November 03, 2020, 07:00:29 PM
Seems right.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on November 03, 2020, 07:48:26 PM
Well, shit... looks like Trump is going to win Florida. Hopefully that isn't critical. :/
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on November 03, 2020, 07:57:04 PM
I'm seeing FL based tied at 80% reporting.  So, should plan on lots of fight.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on November 03, 2020, 08:10:30 PM
I'm looking at the NY Times needle which has Trump at >95% to win Florida, presumably because we're still waiting on a lot of panhandle votes and they're essentially tied before those come out.

Also looks not great for Biden in Georgia, although that's still up in the air.

Looks like it will come down to Arizona or Pennsylvania.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: hans on November 03, 2020, 09:24:44 PM
Landslide is starting to look out of the question so this is probably going to get interesting later tonight and in the next few days.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on November 03, 2020, 11:06:33 PM
One very possible scenario shaping up... Biden wins Arizona, plus Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota. That gives him 269 electoral votes.  !!!

Biden could still win Pennsylvania but if not would have to win Nebraska 2nd district (or Maine's 2nd district) to get to 270 and squeak out a victory.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 04, 2020, 02:51:23 AM
It looks like we'll be keeping America great for a few more years...and look, no violence in the streets :o
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on November 04, 2020, 03:11:26 AM
It looks like we'll be keeping America great for a few more years...and look, no violence in the streets :o

Umm... what results are you watching? It's looking decently good for Biden at the moment.


Fox has called Arizona and while other places haven't it's still very likely to go Biden.
Fox and AP have called Nebraska CD02.
Maine and Nevada are not called yet but are likely Biden as well.
North Carolina isn't called yet either but let's assume Trump wins it.

That means that out of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Georgia, Biden only needs to win any two.
In Michigan and Wisconsin Biden had a huge polling lead. Trump is leading the counted vote but they do early mailed in ballots last which are heavily Democratic. We knew this before tonight. So Biden is still a favorite in both of those states.

Also, Georgia has tons of votes in the heavily Democratic Atlanta area left, and the NYTimes estimate calls it a tossup (64% likely Biden wins). So even if somehow Michigan or Wisconsin go Trump Biden could easily make it up in Georgia.

The election is still not decided, but Trump needs to beat his polls in two states by a lot more than he did in Florida to pull it out. That's not going to be easy. I'd say Trump is in a slightly better position than he was to start the day but still an underdog.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on November 04, 2020, 03:16:20 AM
Here's the current state as of midnight PT. Dark Blue/Dark Red means the state has been called. Light blue means it's likely Biden based on pre-election polls being ~8 points in his favor (or the calls from Fox News).  Gold means it could go either way but both gold states lean at least slightly towards Biden.


(https://www.270towin.com/map-images/Ydj3R)

I guess I'll sleep now and you guys might know more about Michigan and Wisconsin and Arizona and Nevada in the morning before I get up. We'll see what happens.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 04, 2020, 10:44:42 AM
whatever happens, the margins in some of these states are so small - I wonder if we've seen anything like it before. Quite spectacular.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on November 04, 2020, 10:48:22 AM
whatever happens, the margins in some of these states are so small - I wonder if we've seen anything like it before. Quite spectacular.

Most likely this will end up less close than the last election.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: hans on November 04, 2020, 10:56:20 AM
Wow, it's looking like Biden might actually pull this one out. And I don't think anyone doesn't think Trump is going to challenge all of the swing states. This is going to be months before it's over I'm guessing.

I think another thing to keep in mind is that whichever side actually wins this, nearly 50% of the country went the other way.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on November 04, 2020, 11:47:07 AM
I'm waaaay more nervous than I expected to be at this point.  It does seem to be favoring Biden at the moment.  I'm still worried.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 04, 2020, 11:55:29 AM
I think it all comes down to Nevada at this point. Assuming Biden holds on the MI and WI, and Trump to PA, GA, and NC - NV is only 8K votes apart and only 67% reporting.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on November 04, 2020, 12:06:31 PM
I think it all comes down to Nevada at this point. Assuming Biden holds on the MI and WI, and Trump to PA, GA, and NC - NV is only 8K votes apart and only 67% reporting.

I think Biden is a slight favorite in GA and PA so it doesn't necessarily come down to NV. But still, if you look at the NV votes left they are more likely to be Democratic so it's going to be tough for Trump.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 04, 2020, 12:11:03 PM
I think it all comes down to Nevada at this point. Assuming Biden holds on the MI and WI, and Trump to PA, GA, and NC - NV is only 8K votes apart and only 67% reporting.

I think Biden is a slight favorite in GA and PA so it doesn't necessarily come down to NV. But still, if you look at the NV votes left they are more likely to be Democratic so it's going to be tough for Trump.


maybe in GA - but do you think he has a chance in PA being almost 500K behind?
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on November 04, 2020, 12:19:43 PM
Absolutely... the way they set up the counting of the ballots in Pennsylvania was to do the mail-in or early ballots separately and last. Those are heavily democratic. Like 75-25. Quick math: They've counted 80% of the vote and it's 5.5 million votes so far. That leaves 1.4 million votes remaining. Split that 75-25 and it's 1 million for Biden and 350k for Trump. That's 650k advantage for Biden which puts him in the lead.

That's very rough and I don't know that the rest of the votes will be 75-25 but that's in the range of what we can expect. If it's closer to 67-33 then the final result will be really close.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 04, 2020, 12:25:38 PM
a surprising positive outcome in IL is that a graduated income tax amendment was rejected by the voters - Pritzker, our governor, put up a bunch of his own money to flood the state with ads for the amendment - they were horribly deceiving. I was certain that in our state this will pass, and I am surprised that it lost, and lost quite drastically.

Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: hans on November 05, 2020, 12:16:36 AM
...and look, no violence in the streets :o

Cough, Arizona. WTF?
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: jkim on November 05, 2020, 07:24:42 AM
I am absolutely floored by the AZ vote. I really want to know what happened there in the voter demographic and thinking over the last 4 years.

PA is now at only <170k difference. Vote by mail is really working down that red mirage.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 05, 2020, 10:29:01 AM
This is pretty excruciating - imagine how the candidates must feel! holy cow!
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 05, 2020, 10:30:07 AM
I'm telling you guys, I think it still comes down to Nevada

scratch that, I just noticed how much ground Biden gained in GA - wow
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: hans on November 05, 2020, 10:51:43 AM
I'm not sure he'll close the GA gap. It'll be really close, but given the remaining ballots last night I think I figured he'd need 65% of them to get ahead. Making a good run though. AZ is going to be interesting as well. Some of the pundits think there's a larger % of them in there for Trump which would put PA and GA back into the important column. Speaking of GA, can you imagine the next 2mo of their TV ads for the Senate candidates? Especially if they end up with two run offs?


And what the hell is up with Portland? They just riot because now?
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 05, 2020, 10:57:39 AM
And what the hell is up with Portland? They just riot because now?

because they are all high on legal heroin. ;)
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on November 05, 2020, 02:05:07 PM
This is pretty excruciating - imagine how the candidates must feel! holy cow!

I've felt good about a Biden victory since late election night but yeah it is painful to have to wait this long for states to be called.


I think there are a lot of election related reforms that should be enacted because there is no reason for us to still be counting more than 24 hours after polls close. I'd like to see:

* Require all mail ballots to either be postmarked 1 week prior to the election or received by election day (except absentee ballots from people out of state or out of country).
* Drastically increase the number of ballot drop-off locations available to voters so that people who don't send in mail ballots a week early can still get them in easily.
* Increase resources for any precincts where voters must stand in line for more than 15 minutes to vote on election day. This could include larger polling places, more poll works, or adding early voting.
* Allow early processing (if not counting) of ballots delivered before election day. This is stupidly prohibited in places like Pennsylvania which is why we're still waiting for them to count just the regular votes that were sent in on time.

In a pandemic or similar situation I'm fine with easing those restrictions but the goal should be to make it as easy as possible for people to vote and as easy as possible for the vote counts to be completed in a timely fashion.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on November 05, 2020, 03:05:16 PM
One thing I heard that I thought was interesting is that India has a requirement that every citizen has a polling place within so many miles.  This has caused election officials to spend days traveling to a remote location just for a small number of people.  That is the type of thinking I'd like us to have as a country, one where it is the duty of the government to ensure every person eligible to vote can do so without hardship.  I honestly like the direction CA has gone with mailing ballots out, having lots of drop locations, etc.  I think that even if I was one who worked in a job where I couldn't get out on election day that I have plenty of opportunities to use another method of voting.  CA also allowed election officials to validate the ballots and start tabulating them ahead of election day, they just weren't allowed to see the results until after the polls closed.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 05, 2020, 07:35:30 PM
Down to 3K vote difference in GA!!! It is hard to believe
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on November 05, 2020, 08:00:22 PM
Down to 3K vote difference in GA!!! It is hard to believe

Sorry to get on you but what is so hard to believe? That Biden will pull out Georgia? I posted here 40 hours ago that it was still a tossup and Biden would narrow the gap and possibly win. That's what's happening. Or is it just that a Democrat could win in Georgia? Which is not that surprising as they've been getting closer and closer there.

I guess my point is that if you're really surprised by any of this and don't want to be, maybe find some better sources? I mean I know not everyone is a junky about this kind of stuff so I shouldn't be so judgy.. and honestly I'm totally in favor of your right to not put in the time or energy to be super informed, but if you do find yourself constantly surprised by these outcomes there are smart people you can pay attention to that really narrow down the possibilities.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 05, 2020, 08:04:17 PM
You're such a fuck head sometimes, Charlie. Stop analyzing so much and just enjoy the fucking show.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: micah on November 05, 2020, 08:22:33 PM
why bother with a vote at all.  Just let all the junkies run their statistical analysts and pick a winner.  :dunno:
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on November 05, 2020, 08:29:49 PM
why bother with a vote at all.  Just let all the junkies run their statistical analysts and pick a winner.  :dunno:
The last four years would have been a lot better if we had
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on November 05, 2020, 08:34:38 PM
You're such a fuck head sometimes, Charlie. Stop analyzing so much and just enjoy the fucking show.

This is dumb because the election has significant effects on people's lives. I feel like the person treating this like a show is probably the bigger fuck head.


why bother with a vote at all.  Just let all the junkies run their statistical analysts and pick a winner.  :dunno:

Not sure if you're serious here, Micah. We're talking about analyzing people's votes so we understand who they want to elect. If we don't have the election there's nothing to analyze.

Are you saying you'd prefer not to know that Trump's lead in Pennsylvania counts was never safe and was always likely to be overtaken as counting continued? Would you really prefer to believe that one candidate was going to win only to find out later that it wasn't going to happen? My guess is no, but that's all we're really talking about here. Getting a better understanding of the possible outcomes and which are more likely than others and which are not.


And finally... this isn't all about statistical analysis. Just paying attention to the right people who explain things like how many ballots are remaining in Georgia and which counties they are coming etc.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 05, 2020, 11:33:50 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tIs4y4ryDJ0

this will not be pretty. Team Trump is taking a page from the DEMS 2016 playbook - and taking it a step further. This will drag on for a very long time and can lead to major unpleasantness
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on November 06, 2020, 12:37:20 AM
I'm so tired of this bullshit.  There are adjudicators reviewing all the ballots that are questionable.  I'm so tired of the 'fraud' claim.  WTF.  The entire Trump campaign runs on fear, not information or plans.  I'm so tired of it.  These people are so afraid of the truth and they think they're hiding it.  Who can't see through this bullshit?

Mail in ballots never happened before?  They're always fraudulent?  WE DON'T KNOW, THEY COULD BE FROM MARS!?!?!  REALLLLLLLLLLLLLY?  GTFO.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on November 06, 2020, 09:04:00 AM
I was surprised and happy to hear that major news organizations decided to cut away from his press conference and rebuke him instead of giving him a platform.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on November 06, 2020, 12:14:57 PM
Anyway, now that this is essentially over:

* Democrats will lose a few seats in the House but keep control.
* Democrats will gain a few seats in the Senate and control will be determined by the two Georgia Senate races going to a runoff in January.
* Biden will win the popular vote clearly (he's up by 4 million votes and counting) and will probably win the Presidency in the electoral college by the same margin Trump did.



Across all three groups of races Democrats got more votes. Democrats have had more votes in 7 of the last 8 Presidential elections.

This makes it clear that at least when it comes to these two parties, Americans prefer Democrats. We talked about conservatives and a silent majority in another thread. I mistakenly conflated conservative with Republican there, but it's clear Republicans are not a majority. (Conservatives aren't either but they are a plurality.) Instead we have a divided electorate that very clearly leans towards the Democrats.

To be honest it doesn't really matter much to me personally. I don't "love" Democrats and don't consider them my team. But I do think it shows a "mandate" for whatever that is worth in that it is a clear victory relative to American elections in general. And conservatives shouldn't be able to claim it was a "close" election as reasoning not to enact the agenda Biden ran on. Despite the narratives that arose because of the way the votes were counted this was a repudiation of Trump and a solid victory for Biden.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on November 07, 2020, 12:47:14 PM
AP just called it for Biden.  Depending on the source I'm seeing upwards of 290 EV.  Which gives some nice buffer while challenges are handled.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: hans on November 07, 2020, 06:06:29 PM
Ya, this is over. Doubtful Trump's side will win multiple state legal challenges. If it was just PA then maybe, but I'm going to guess it'll be hard to put together a legal team that would want to take on this task since it's pretty much a losing proposition.

What's going to be more important now is how Trump burns things down on his way out and what happens in GA senator races.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: micah on November 07, 2020, 07:17:09 PM
But I do think it shows a "mandate" for whatever that is worth in that it is a clear victory relative to American elections in general. And conservatives shouldn't be able to claim it was a "close" election as reasoning not to enact the agenda Biden ran on.

i would hardly call 3% difference a mandate.  This election just proved that, despite the entirety of pop-culture being anti-trump, we are still torn as a nation.  Despite how crazy and self-destructive trump is, nearly half of the voters still voted for him.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on November 07, 2020, 07:17:56 PM
Yeah, I wouldn't put it past him to gut the good people from the executive offices and department.  I'm kind of hoping that his EO regarding employee classifications just gets ignored.

Do you think he'll attend the swearing in?

Also, does anyone know the outcome of whether his Twitter posts are considered public record?  I know the @potus ones are but can't remember if his account is or not.  The mean part of me hopes it is and that he loses access to it.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on November 07, 2020, 08:34:44 PM
But I do think it shows a "mandate" for whatever that is worth in that it is a clear victory relative to American elections in general. And conservatives shouldn't be able to claim it was a "close" election as reasoning not to enact the agenda Biden ran on.

i would hardly call 3% difference a mandate.  This election just proved that, despite the entirety of pop-culture being anti-trump, we are still torn as a nation.  Despite how crazy and self-destructive trump is, nearly half of the voters still voted for him.

I generally agree with you in that in this country no federally elected official ever has a clear mandate because of the two-party polarization. I guess the point was that if you believe in mandates then this is a strong win that deserves one. It will be 4-5% before it's done, second biggest of the last six elections. So if you ever use the argument that elected officials should get to put in place their policies because they won their elections then you of course should allow that here.

And while I was for more restraint during the Obama administration I think the norm-breaking and power grabbing by Republicans in the Senate since then means that anything legal goes now.

- Get rid of filibuster? Good.
- Pass legislation with 50 votes and the VP? Do it if you need to and can.
- Expand the court? Sure. I prefer by 2 to go back to the us quo from before the Garland/Barrett gambit but if they want to go 4 then it's just as "ok" as what McConnell did.

On the other hand many of the norms that Trump and his administration specifically broke I do hope come back. Like I don't need Presidents to violate the Hatch Act every ten minutes and political hirings and firings for non-political executive branch offices is not something I want to see continue.


Stop analyzing so much and just enjoy the fucking show.

Ok fine... in honor of Jake I will stop and laugh at the total absurdity of the Trump campaign setting up a press conference at the Four Seasons, only to somehow end up doing it in the parking lot of a random business called Four Seasons Total Landscaping instead of at the hotel. That shit is so fucking hilarious I just can't
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 08, 2020, 08:24:27 AM
Silly question: what happens to the wall now? Does Biden dismantle it? Keep as is? Or continue building?
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: hans on November 08, 2020, 11:20:55 AM
Well since it never actually got built and paid for by Mexico I'd say Biden will probably just shut the project down and leave it alone.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: micah on November 08, 2020, 05:16:40 PM
Well since it never actually got built and paid for by Mexico I'd say Biden will probably just shut the project down and leave it alone.

except it is being built and hundreds of miles of it are complete.  The "he didn't build the wall" troupe is based on the fact that they started by rebuilding/replacing existing border walls.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 08, 2020, 06:54:44 PM
Meanwhile on our way to costco 🤣 my kids were going wild. We drove by 4 times :D

https://photos.app.goo.gl/RqzKnSuWUZcAMs4w9
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 08, 2020, 07:24:40 PM
Just to finish this thread off from my side, I'm disappointed that Biden won and Trump lost. But life goes on. Trump needs to concede and concentrate on how he finishes off his term as president. I'm afraid that he will fight this until the end, and in turn the country will become even more divided.

GOP needs to start the search for the next candidate that can defeat Kamala in four years.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on November 08, 2020, 07:27:53 PM
Lol I thought you weren't a Trump fan.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on November 08, 2020, 07:29:21 PM
Well since it never actually got built and paid for by Mexico I'd say Biden will probably just shut the project down and leave it alone.

except it is being built and hundreds of miles of it are complete.  The "he didn't build the wall" troupe is based on the fact that they started by rebuilding/replacing existing border walls.

Either way I don't think it's a big deal. It wasn't like the opposition to the wall was that existing wall should be torn down, just that it wasn't worth the cost and effort (and it signaled something that opponents were against).
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 08, 2020, 07:29:30 PM
Lol I thought you weren't a Trump fan.

;)
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on November 08, 2020, 07:31:31 PM
Ahh... on of those "shy" Trump supporters, huh?

:D
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on November 09, 2020, 12:15:17 PM
For those that need a hand in how to pronounce the new VP's first name:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4sQgrPZDPFQ
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on November 13, 2020, 04:23:44 PM
I know this is satire and I know my conservative family members have been passing it around but I honestly giggled at it.

Obviously, even the dead are Never Trumpers
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 13, 2020, 07:29:57 PM
hahaha, that's the best one I've seen :)
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 16, 2020, 01:37:35 PM
This is some excellent satire

https://youtu.be/3iCGBPUdSNM
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: VBprogrammer on November 19, 2020, 03:26:04 PM
What the hell is going on over there? If this was a movie plot people would call it comically overdone.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on November 19, 2020, 04:51:04 PM
Yeah.. it's not great.

I can't tell how much of it is people being deluded into thinking there is substance behind the accusations or just people cynically trying to hold on to power.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: hans on November 19, 2020, 07:46:29 PM
It's 2020. Reality has taken the year off.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on November 19, 2020, 11:00:32 PM
What the hell is going on over there? If this was a movie plot people would call it comically overdone.

who let this guy in?

:D

welcome home
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on November 20, 2020, 09:19:39 AM
One up side of this shit show is that we get to see Trump losing over and over.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on November 23, 2020, 06:44:18 PM
Looks like the GSA has finally acknowledged Biden and has released the funds and access so that Biden can begin the transition in earnest.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: VBprogrammer on November 25, 2020, 03:33:15 PM
Sorry the "mainstream media" aren't really covering this very well. Is Trump's team really holding a meeting in a hotel and trying to dress it up as an official state legislature meeting? It just sounds bat shit crazy.

P.s. I'll say hello properly in another thread!
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on December 03, 2020, 09:57:25 AM
Micah/Jake - curious where you guys stand after the comments from Barr and the insanity being spewed by Trump still at this point.  Trying to pre-pardon his family members (which is just an admission of guilt), still saying there was massive fraud in the election, still dividing the country and inciting the insanity and violence against innocent officials.  When does it stop?  He's randomly firing anyone that disagrees with him.  Do you still support this guy?
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on December 03, 2020, 09:59:08 AM
I'm over it. We just need to move on.

but,

Trump 2024! ;)
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on December 03, 2020, 10:57:40 AM
So.... not over it then?
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on December 03, 2020, 11:29:30 AM
So.... not over it then?

I thought that the ;) would indicate that was a joke.

45MAGA47!!!

;)
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: micah on December 03, 2020, 01:49:22 PM
So.... not over it then?

I thought that the ;) would indicate that was a joke.

45MAGA47!!!

;)

 :lol: :rofl:

not sure if I said this before, but, since this is a safe space:  I didn't vote this year.  First time in 23-years.  Just didn't even bother. It was a regular Tuesday. Didn't even check the news that night.  And you know what? it felt great!
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: hans on December 03, 2020, 02:36:31 PM
Micah, you could also just say you didn't vote for Trump. Sounds more civic than I didn't vote. ;)
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on December 03, 2020, 03:24:12 PM
So.... not over it then?

I thought that the ;) would indicate that was a joke.

45MAGA47!!!

;)

Will you please grow the fuck up and stop this "I'm just trolling" bullshit?
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Mike on December 03, 2020, 03:37:49 PM
not sure if I said this before, but, since this is a safe space:  I didn't vote this year.  First time in 23-years.  Just didn't even bother. It was a regular Tuesday. Didn't even check the news that night.  And you know what? it felt great!

Want to give you some shit for it but honestly, I can understand why you felt that way.  So, no hate.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on December 15, 2020, 05:51:07 PM
So just cleaning up loose ends... Final electoral college: 306-232 (same as 2016 if you ignore faithless electors).

(https://www.270towin.com/map-images/x4Y7Z)

Popular vote count:
Biden: 81,283,495
Trump: 74,223,753

Biden wins popular vote by 7 million votes, or 4.5 percentage points.

One way this election was just a little closer than 2016 was in the minimum number of votes that would have to change for Clinton to win (~78k) versus the minimum for Trump to have won (~65k) in the electoral college.

Of course 2020 elections aren't totally over. Control of the Senate is still up in the air depending on the election in Georgia happening now.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Threadkiller on December 16, 2020, 05:55:48 AM
It's not over yet.

Just wait...


















 :rofl:
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: hans on December 16, 2020, 12:33:24 PM
You'd think it would have ended by now but sadly, there's still Jan 6th and 20th left so until then I guess we have to keep dealing with all of this.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on December 23, 2020, 11:17:30 PM
I really hate the fucking main stream media. I just watched a bunch of news clips from various sources about trump challenging the "covid-19 relief" bill. Every single one only mentioned that trump wants $2K instead of $600 and they don't mention any other reasons and quickly go into who he's pardoned today.

In fact, based on his speech, he wants government to cut all the pork out of the bill and instead of spending hundreds of millions on foreign aid and other pet projects to spend it on the american people.

I wonder how you can disagree with his stance?

https://youtu.be/biLECGZrKA4
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on December 24, 2020, 12:42:57 AM
I wonder how you can disagree with his stance?

Lol... please think about it and try to give us some reasons why people might disagree with that stance.



I just watched a bunch of news clips

I’m also very curious where you saw these clips. Not who they were from but where you actually saw them and who put them together.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on December 24, 2020, 01:10:32 AM
I wonder how you can disagree with his stance?

Lol... please think about it and try to give us some reasons why people might disagree with that stance.



I just watched a bunch of news clips

I’m also very curious where you saw these clips. Not who they were from but where you actually saw them and who put them together.

You're a douche, charlie. But here you go:

https://youtu.be/T0UhYolu9uw

https://youtu.be/C203HB_ABF0

https://youtu.be/pF2Nm0S0buY

https://youtu.be/P8SF0JZrmow

First 4 from the youtube breaking news feed
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on December 24, 2020, 01:15:05 AM
And here is one from my favorite:

https://youtu.be/DJOB2DiNNsY
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: hans on December 24, 2020, 01:26:27 AM
I'm sorry but that guy is a huge con man. It doesn't really matter what he says now since it's not going to matter in a month. He had the last four years and wasted them. And the pardons should really speak to his character. He's just grand standing and I'm understandably shocked that you don't see that Jake. You seem like someone that can call out BS when they see it and that's all I see in Trump. There's no substance to anything he says, just double speak.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on December 24, 2020, 01:33:01 AM
Yeah, I mean the pardons today were so egregiously corrupt that in comparison the media not going deeper on the reasons for the veto threat seems pretty trivial.


I wonder how you can disagree with his stance?

Lol... please think about it and try to give us some reasons why people might disagree with that stance.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on December 24, 2020, 02:01:07 AM
I'm sorry but that guy is a huge con man. It doesn't really matter what he says now since it's not going to matter in a month. He had the last four years and wasted them. And the pardons should really speak to his character. He's just grand standing and I'm understandably shocked that you don't see that Jake. You seem like someone that can call out BS when they see it and that's all I see in Trump. There's no substance to anything he says, just double speak.

I agree, and i never said otherwise. The pardons are BS for sure.

Yeah, I mean the pardons today were so egregiously corrupt that in comparison the media not going deeper on the reasons for the veto threat seems pretty trivial.


How convenient.

I wonder how you can disagree with his stance?

Lol... please think about it and try to give us some reasons why people might disagree with that stance.


Charlie, please explain the big government logic to me. Why does a stimulus bill to help the american people need to include so much other fat? Trim the fat. Stop the unnecessary foreign aid. Stop with pet projects that make the swamp politicians rich or help them get reelected. Help people. Help small businesses.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on December 24, 2020, 02:03:15 AM
Why don't these news outlets show their viewers what is really in the bill and just how little of that bill is actually covid relief for americans? What is the purpose?
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on December 24, 2020, 02:28:27 AM
Jake... are you aware that the bill in question is the funding for the entire government, plus Covid relief combined into a single bill? The “fat” you’re almost certainly talking about is all from the omnibus side, and is almost entirely stuff that Trump’s administration included in their proposed budget.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on December 24, 2020, 02:32:07 AM
It’s all standard stuff. That’s not newsworthy. There were a few extra and new things in there like legislation to curb surprise billing and they got news attention (although they may not have been big enough to find space in a nightly news show), but the government funding details are just not that interesting to make news segments focused on getting viewers.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: micah on December 24, 2020, 12:14:07 PM
Great post Jake.  Thanks for not trolling.  I 100% agree with you.  The list of pork in this bill is insane.  Almost NONE of it has anything to do with COVID but its titled the covid relief bill. Its like thousands of pages and the congress had only a few hours with it before the vote.

I say Good on Trump for calling them out on this bullshit.   $600 is a joke.

edit: not to mention that Nanci Pelosi has made it clear that they held up this bill/vote until after the election for political gain.  Absolutely sickening.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on December 24, 2020, 12:33:46 PM
C’mon Micah... are you talking about the COVID bill or the government spending omnibus? They’re two different things combined together to help ensure passage.

Like, if you’re against the spending in the government funding bill fine, but it’s separate from COVID relief.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on December 24, 2020, 01:31:37 PM
I guess I just get annoyed at outrage in general, and especially when it’s rooted in misunderstanding. (Not saying you guys’ posts are definitely based on misunderstanding, I’m just asking because it doesn’t make sense to me as written.)

Everything sounds bad in politics on the surface. And there are definitely things to be unhappy with. But a lot of the bad things Congress does is because it’s so easy for the general public to take limited information and turn it into outrage. So they’re incentivized to use tricks and weird maneuvers to get stuff done with the least amount of political backlash. That leads to suboptimal policy.

In the case of COVID, the checks directly to people are good, but they’re not necessarily better policy than additional unemployment assistance, they’re just less susceptible to outrage.

Is there stuff to disagree with in the government funding bill? Of course! Would we all disagree on what was good and what was bad? Probably. But this is just normal stuff and if you’re consuming media that sensationalizes it all and allow that to make you outraged then you may just be making the problem worse.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: micah on December 24, 2020, 02:20:55 PM
Charlie, thanks for clarifying... every single headline i've read (like from real news outlets not facebook posts) have called it the "900 billion dollar stimulus bill."  So the presumption is that this is the COVID Relief and stimulus package that they've been promising for months.  :dunno:  you could easily see how having a $600 "stimulous" to make up for a crippled economy could cause people to get outraged when the same bill gives millions for silly things like gender studies in Pakistan.

I'll take your word for it though and stand down my outrage (a little)... although for what its worth these omnibus pork bills are always ridiculous. Just because they're bipartisanly approved and happen every year, doesn't make them any better.  Pork is pork.

Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: VBprogrammer on December 28, 2020, 04:22:55 AM
Quote
silly things like gender studies in Pakistan.

It's easy to get your knickers in a twist when you start casting programs intended to improve the lives of woman in oppressive counties as "gender studies".

From the outside looking in the thing I can't understand is why giving every American citizen money, with no means testing, is even considered a good idea. Putting it another way, not giving the $600 to the literal top %1 would save $1.4 billion.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: micah on December 28, 2020, 12:32:39 PM
From the outside looking in the thing I can't understand is why giving every American citizen money, with no means testing, is even considered a good idea. Putting it another way, not giving the $600 to the literal top %1 would save $1.4 billion.

The $600 phases out for earners making above USD $75k (single) or like $150k married filing jointly.  After that it drops like $10 for every $1,000 you earn.  So upper middle class and the rich do not get the benefit.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on December 28, 2020, 03:52:44 PM
Yeah, there is definitely means testing in this particular bill. (Which Trump finally signed :woot: )


But.. I'm not sure I agree that there needs to be any, at least in general. I feel like a system that has as little overhead and bureaucracy as possible is better. If you're worried it is not progressive enough, then you adjust your tax level accordingly. All the effort to make sure "only the right people" get it just costs time and money and often leads to missing out on helping some people who the program was intended for in the first place.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: VBprogrammer on December 29, 2020, 04:19:57 AM
Quote
Yeah, there is definitely means testing in this particular bill.

Ah, that sounds pretty reasonable. Wasn't obvious from any of the reporting I read on it.

Quote
All the effort to make sure "only the right people" get it

Yeah, I was thinking about that too. The thought I had in my head was to make it opt-in, that would certainly weed out those people for who $600 isn't worth completing a form. But it probably introduces too many opportunities for fraud.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: jkim on December 29, 2020, 09:20:04 AM
The thought I had in my head was to make it opt-in, that would certainly weed out those people for who $600 isn't worth completing a form. But it probably introduces too many opportunities for fraud.

I don't think anyone is going to say "well I don't really want $600." It really makes it more of a burden for everyone who does need it. And the fact of the matter is the people who really do need it need much more than $600.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on January 05, 2021, 05:41:42 PM
Should be a close race for the Senate tonight. Might not have a definitive result before bedtime like last time.

I encourage folks to check out the NYTimes needles: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/05/us/elections/forecast-georgia-senate-runoff.html

If they're running (sometimes there is problems and they shut it down) it gives a better sense of the state of the race than just vote tallies you see on TV. For example, it had Biden favored to win Georgia in November well before it was obvious that he'd have enough votes to get there.

I'm pretty 50-50. I could see it going any direction including a split vote. I expect it will be fairly close no matter what.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on January 05, 2021, 10:48:02 PM
Looks like Warnock is very likely to win and Ossoff is ahead of where he needs to be so things are looking good for two Democratic wins and a 50-50 Senate... Still possible Perdue pulls it out but at this point I wouldn't bet on it.


Edit: It's over. I guess I'm a little surprised but this is pretty good thing in my opinion. Unlikely anything radical or transformative gets done but at least the government will be able to govern and there will be a few hopefully good things passed as well.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: VBprogrammer on January 06, 2021, 06:20:40 AM
If Trump had given up his non-sense two weeks after the election when he last vaguely acknowledged that he lost and properly campaigned for the Georgia senate run-offs I doubt this would have gone down the same way. Sad.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: jkim on January 06, 2021, 02:08:36 PM
If Trump had given up his non-sense two weeks after the election when he last vaguely acknowledged that he lost and properly campaigned for the Georgia senate run-offs I doubt this would have gone down the same way. Sad.
I was actually thinking that this morning, but I am not really sad about it LOL
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: hans on January 06, 2021, 02:30:00 PM
The real question is have the Democrats finally decided they're actually going to leverage the power this time?
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on January 06, 2021, 03:25:41 PM
Fucking animals amirite?*





* I of course have more nuanced thoughts on today’s protests but for now I thought this was appropriate.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: hans on January 06, 2021, 05:20:01 PM
Am I the only one already thinking that Jan 20th is going to be a nightmare?
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on January 06, 2021, 05:58:03 PM
I don’t know. My gut feeling is that this doesn’t get much worse. I feel like most of the Republican party will (finally) step up and speak out against Trump’s stolen election rhetoric and there will be a strong push for more order.

Also given Covid I don’t expect the inauguration to be much of a celebration for protestors to interrupt. We’ll see though.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Jake on January 07, 2021, 11:23:12 PM
Fucking animals amirite?*





* I of course have more nuanced thoughts on today’s protests but for now I thought this was appropriate.

You're right. What a fucking disgrace. What happened yesterday should was fucked...and it's a shame trump was egging these guys on. If there was concrete evidence, I'd probably be right there with them, but there is nothing. It is a done deal.

I hope that Biden leads from a centrist position, otherwise things will just get worse :/
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: hans on January 07, 2021, 11:26:33 PM
Odds on a second impeachment? I'm thinking about 50% at this point.

And that video from Trump today was clearly a defeated man reading a teleprompter he did not want to be reading. You know he's not capable of writing that speech and must have had some serious pressure put on him to do that.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: ober on January 08, 2021, 09:20:10 AM
He was pressured by his staff.  I read that if he hadn't done that, more people would have resigned.  Too little, too late all around IMO.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: charlie on January 08, 2021, 08:46:53 PM
Odds on a second impeachment? I'm thinking about 50% at this point.

I think there's a decent chance the House impeaches. Maybe more likely than not. But I think it's unlikely that the Senate removes.

It feels like people just go through the motions, Democrats pushing to remove Trump and Republicans asking everybody to come together and move on. And then in a couple weeks it's Biden's turn to be President.

Things could change if there are additional protests/riots/violence on the 17th or another day and depending on how Trump reacts to that.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Perspective on January 08, 2021, 08:49:19 PM
Not sure how Trump will be able to react without twitter...

Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: hans on January 08, 2021, 11:10:08 PM
He'll borrow Melania's account.
Title: Re: Election 2020
Post by: Perspective on January 09, 2021, 02:37:49 PM
?