Author Topic: Coronavirus COVID-19  (Read 1931 times)

Mike

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
« Reply #30 on: March 09, 2020, 10:04:13 PM »
Sacramento county updated their advisories.  They are moving from containment to mitigation.  They are no longer recommending the 14 day quarantine upon exposure to with COVID-19.  Just normal "wash your damn hands, stay the fuck home if you are sick, don't call 911 unless you are literally in an emergency" (anger translation mine).

https://www.saccounty.net/news/latest-news/Pages/County-Announces-New-Mitigation-Efforts-COVID-19.aspx

charlie

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
« Reply #31 on: March 10, 2020, 01:47:37 AM »
Odd given that there seems to be some possibility that you can be contagious without exhibiting symptoms.


ober

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
« Reply #32 on: March 10, 2020, 09:23:02 AM »
Ohio is now in a state of emergency.  3 reported cases in Cuyahoga County (Cleveland, basically).  My management team just met yesterday to ask if there was anything preventing us from having everyone WFH for several weeks.  So that's happening. 

I am not changing anything financially.  One of my clients on the side is a financial advisor and also said to stay the course in his most recent email to his clients.  Everyone freaking out just makes everyone else freak out.  Calm down and don't do anything irrational.  This too shall pass.

Jake

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
« Reply #33 on: March 10, 2020, 05:29:42 PM »
nice comeback today - hopefully this continues throughout the week.
Do not follow where the path may lead. Go instead where there is no path and leave a trail.

Mike

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
« Reply #34 on: March 10, 2020, 07:30:46 PM »
I'm soooo excited for you.  I'm sure the people who are sick really care about your portfolio /s

Jake

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
« Reply #35 on: March 10, 2020, 08:34:33 PM »
you're a real bitch lately, Mike.
Do not follow where the path may lead. Go instead where there is no path and leave a trail.

ober

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
« Reply #36 on: March 10, 2020, 09:50:39 PM »
I can see both sides of it so I will ask you both to maybe take a breather?  Mike, you've been super harsh lately.  We've gotten in heated debates on here but you've sort of been off the charts in attack mode lately, especially with Jake (or mainly solely with Jake).  Jake, your comments about your financials in a thread about the virus when the rest of us are talking about keeping people safe aren't completely out of line but it does come off a little aloof and out of touch.  Just FYI.  I'll leave your political thoughts alone.  You're entitled to your opinions.  And frankly, I think it's healthy to have differing opinions on here.  If we all thought the same way it would be boring.

Jake

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
« Reply #37 on: March 10, 2020, 10:53:08 PM »
This is a thread about the virus - no matter what it affects. Economy and the stock market is one of those things. My 401K and other investments, as well as millions of other people's took a huge hit in the past week - I think that is a topic worth exploring.
I mean, holy shit, I lost a lot of money! But that doesn't mean I don't feel for the people that are sick.
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ober

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
« Reply #38 on: March 11, 2020, 12:09:46 AM »
I said it wasn't completely out of line.  I just think Mike is already triggered by you for some reason.  Just giving you reasons why he lost his shit?  I'm not trying to start anything with you.  No need to be defensive.

charlie

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
« Reply #39 on: March 11, 2020, 02:04:56 AM »
If we all thought the same way it would be boring.

Meh, on the political front it is pretty boring because most people don't really want to talk about what they think. And honestly it's not my place to say they're wrong on that, but it's not like we have any good discussions on about politics.

charlie

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
« Reply #40 on: March 11, 2020, 02:27:42 AM »
With what I'm reading I'm feeling like being proactive and canceling or postponing events is the right way to go. Obviously that's a hardship for some but I think in the long run it will save lives.

Saw some info today about how people tend to be more contagious early in the cycle (like maybe even before symptoms) and less contagious at the end (like maybe quarantine doesn't need to last as long).

Also, I think the idea is that we should be making decisions now based on what we expect to be true in a couple weeks, because all the information is a week or two behind. We still don't have nearly enough testing capability even though we've had months to prepare and weeks since it was clear it was needed. Everywhere in the U.S. that has reported cases has seen numbers that get bigger and bigger on a daily basis. If your case load keeps doubling every few days and there are a bunch of people infected that don't show symptoms yet or haven't been tested, then guess what, you have a ton more cases than actually being reported and the number is going to keep going up unless you stop people who don't realize they're contagious from infecting other people.

If you have community transmission in your community, close shit down. If you have infected people even if not from community transmission, quarantine them and everybody they've been in contact with if you can. Slow the spread before you become Italy and your health care system is overwhelmed.

Edit: Just saw this article after posting: The Atlantic: Cancel Everything (4 free articles before subscription required)

Quote
Because the United States has been extremely sluggish in testing patients for the coronavirus, the official tally of 604 likely represents a fraction of the real caseload. But even if we take this number at face value, it suggests that we should prepare to have up to 10 times as many cases a week from today, and up to 100 times as many cases two weeks from today.

Quote
Meanwhile, the news from Italy, another country with a highly developed medical system, has so far been shockingly bad. In the affluent region of Lombardy, for example, there have been 7,375 confirmed cases of the virus as of Sunday. Of these patients, 622 had recovered, 366 had died, and the majority were still sick. Even under the highly implausible assumption that all of the still-sick make a full recovery, this would suggest a case fatality rate of 5 percent—significantly higher, not lower, than in China.
Note that 5% is 50 times worse than the flu.
« Last Edit: March 11, 2020, 02:39:41 AM by charlie »

jkim

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
« Reply #41 on: March 11, 2020, 09:38:24 AM »
Quote
Meanwhile, the news from Italy, another country with a highly developed medical system, has so far been shockingly bad. In the affluent region of Lombardy, for example, there have been 7,375 confirmed cases of the virus as of Sunday. Of these patients, 622 had recovered, 366 had died, and the majority were still sick. Even under the highly implausible assumption that all of the still-sick make a full recovery, this would suggest a case fatality rate of 5 percent—significantly higher, not lower, than in China.
Note that 5% is 50 times worse than the flu.

Yes, a heavily overwhelmed healthcare system is going to have higher fatality rates. I don't think 5% is quite representative of a true mortality rate though. I really liked this article although the the figures are a little out of date now.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca


But basically it's the same conclusion. Reduce transmission and encourage social distancing.
« Last Edit: March 11, 2020, 09:50:23 AM by jkim »
definitely bas

jkim

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
« Reply #42 on: March 11, 2020, 09:49:19 AM »
Also, we had our first hospital scare and sent a sample out for testing last week. Thankfully it came back negative, but the state had to expand their qualifications for testing before we could actually send it. Staff are getting daily updates about everything and we have livestreams scheduled every Friday until the forseeable future. IT Staff are beginning a 50% staff WFH alternating weekly. I don't quite have that much luxury, but everyone is definitely ramping up their WFH.
definitely bas

Mike

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
« Reply #43 on: March 11, 2020, 10:02:34 AM »
What I find absolutely insane are the stories of people breaking quarantine to go to mass gatherings.  Like, what the fuck is going through their head?

charlie

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19
« Reply #44 on: March 11, 2020, 11:08:14 AM »
Quote
Meanwhile, the news from Italy, another country with a highly developed medical system, has so far been shockingly bad. In the affluent region of Lombardy, for example, there have been 7,375 confirmed cases of the virus as of Sunday. Of these patients, 622 had recovered, 366 had died, and the majority were still sick. Even under the highly implausible assumption that all of the still-sick make a full recovery, this would suggest a case fatality rate of 5 percent—significantly higher, not lower, than in China.
Note that 5% is 50 times worse than the flu.

Yes, a heavily overwhelmed healthcare system is going to have higher fatality rates. I don't think 5% is quite representative of a true mortality rate though.

Agreed. That's really just one part of Italy whose health care system is already overwhelmed. Still, the fatality rate I've seen estimated is still between 1% and 3.5%, which still super high compared to flu's 0.1%.